食品饮料行业投资策略月报：浅谈抖音零食近况——月度聚焦

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The report focuses on the changes in the Douyin channel for snacks, highlighting a shift from low-price strategies to prioritizing GMV growth. The snack sales on Douyin have transitioned to a "price increase model" in Q2 2024, with significant growth driven by product cards and an increase in the importance of shelf space [1][12][18] - The report notes that the food and beverage sector underperformed the market by 2.2 percentage points in July, with a mixed performance across sub-sectors. The valuation of the food and beverage sector is at historical lows, with PE and PB ratios at the 9th and 12th percentiles since 2010, respectively [1][2][7] - The report recommends leading companies with strong cash flow stability, such as Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, and growth-oriented companies like Yanjing Beer and Dongpeng Beverage [1][2] Monthly Focus: Changes in Douyin Channel - Overview: The focus has shifted from low pricing to prioritizing shelf space. Douyin's GMV growth has slowed, leading to a strategic adjustment to prioritize GMV growth over price competitiveness. In Q2 2024, the snack sector's sales have shown a significant increase in average price [1][12][18] - Structure: There has been an increase in supply, with the CR3 market share rising from 3.6% in April 2023 to 6.7% in July 2024, indicating a growing concentration among leading brands [1][25] - Brand Performance: Three Squirrels and Salted Fish have shown strong performance, consistently outperforming the market. Their growth strategies focus on filling product gaps and expanding self-operated channels [1][29][31] Market Review - The food and beverage sector underperformed the broader market in July, with snacks and liquor experiencing declines while beverages and food processing saw gains. Northbound capital outflow from the sector amounted to 5.8 billion yuan in July [1][2][7] - Valuation metrics indicate that the food and beverage sector is at historical lows, with PE and PB ratios at 9% and 12% percentiles since 2010, respectively [1][2][7] Fundamental Tracking - The report notes a recovery in the price of Moutai, while demand for mass-market products remains weak. The average price of Moutai has stabilized around 2,350-2,400 yuan per bottle as of late July [1][7][10] - The overall market for mass-market products has shown weak performance, with significant declines in production growth rates for beer, dairy, and beverages in July [1][7][10]