Toly Bread(SH:603866) Zhongyuan Securities·2024-08-20 12:14Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" for the company, indicating a potential increase in stock price relative to the market index [1]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.021 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 5.79% [1]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company, excluding non-recurring items, was 278 million yuan, a decrease of 1.19% year-on-year [1]. - The report highlights a significant recovery in profitability during the second quarter, with net profit showing an upward trend [1]. - The company is expected to launch new products in the second half of the year, which may help reverse the sales decline [1]. - The report notes that the sales pressure is primarily due to weakened product strength, channel penetration, and macro consumption capacity [1]. Financial Performance Summary - The company achieved a revenue of 6.522 billion yuan in 2024E, with a projected growth rate of -3.50% [3]. - The net profit for 2024E is estimated at 651 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 13.38% [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024E is projected to be 0.41 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 13.32 times [2][3]. - The gross margin is expected to improve to 24.35% in 2024E, compared to 22.79% in 2023A [7]. Cash Flow and Investment - The operating cash flow for 2024E is projected to be 877 million yuan, showing an increase from 811 million yuan in 2023A [5]. - The company is expected to have capital expenditures of 429 million yuan in 2024E, down from 860 million yuan in 2023A [5]. - The net increase in cash for 2024E is forecasted to be 60 million yuan, a recovery from a decrease of 115 million yuan in 2023A [5]. Balance Sheet Overview - Total assets are projected to reach 7.508 billion yuan in 2024E, up from 7.048 billion yuan in 2023A [4]. - The company's total liabilities are expected to increase to 2.264 billion yuan in 2024E, compared to 1.960 billion yuan in 2023A [4]. - The equity attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 5.244 billion yuan in 2024E, reflecting a slight increase from 5.087 billion yuan in 2023A [4].