Wondershare(300624) 国泰君安·2024-08-20 14:10Investment Rating - Maintains an "Overweight" rating with a target price adjusted to 60.83 RMB [3] - The target price is based on a 2024 PE of 120x, reflecting the company's scarcity in the video large model sector [3] Core Views - The company is accelerating AI commercialization and significantly improving product capabilities [2] - AI video and audio algorithms are being rapidly developed and implemented, though not yet fully deployed, with testing and evaluation ongoing [3] - Revenue for H1 2024 was 705 million RMB, down 1.80% YoY, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 24.49 million RMB, down 43.99% YoY [3] - Over 100 AI algorithms were developed or integrated in H1 2024, supporting product expansion and quality improvement [3] - The company is enhancing its video creation engine and exploring AI application scenarios and commercialization paths [3] - Strategic partnerships, such as with Huawei Cloud, are strengthening the company's computing power and data resource accumulation [3] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024E is projected at 1.657 billion RMB, with a YoY growth of 11.9% [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024E is forecasted at 98 million RMB, with a YoY growth of 13.4% [4] - EPS for 2024E is estimated at 0.51 RMB, with a ROE of 6.9% [4] - The company's revenue model is primarily subscription-based, with stable gross margins around 95% [12] Product Line Performance - Video creation products, contributing 65% of revenue in 2023, are expected to grow at 13%/15%/16% from 2024 to 2026 [12] - Cross-platform data management software is projected to grow at 12%/15%/16% over the same period [12] - Document creation software, leveraging AI capabilities, is expected to grow at 10%/10%/15% from 2024 to 2026 [12] - Drawing and creative products are forecasted to grow at 10%/10%/15% from 2024 to 2026 [12] Valuation - Using PS valuation, the company's 2024 revenue is projected at 1.657 billion RMB, with a PS multiple of 7.2x, implying a market cap of 11.93 billion RMB and a target price of 61.71 RMB [16] - Using PE valuation, the company is given a 2024 PE of 120x, resulting in a market cap of 11.76 billion RMB and a target price of 60.83 RMB [20] - Comparable companies include Kingsoft Office, Ufida Network, and iFlytek, with average 2024 PE of 87.78x and PS of 6.88x [17][21]