Xinda Securities·2024-08-20 14:39Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1][4] Core Views - Despite facing pressure on beer sales in H1 2024, the company has managed to increase revenue per ton and maintain growth in EBITDA and profit margins [2][3] - The company is actively integrating its liquor business, aiming to create a dual empowerment model of "beer + liquor" [2][3] Summary by Sections Beer Business Performance - In H1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 22.566 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4%, with sales volume at 6.348 million kiloliters, down 3.4% year-on-year [1] - The revenue per kiloliter increased by 2.0% year-on-year, with premium and above products showing single-digit growth despite a challenging macro environment [1][2] - E-commerce sales grew approximately 60% year-on-year, and high-end beer sales increased by over 10% [1] Profitability and Cost Management - The gross margin for H1 2024 was 46.9%, up 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decrease in beer costs [2] - The company implemented cost control measures, resulting in stable operating expenses, and achieved an EBITDA of 4.13 billion yuan, maintaining year-on-year performance [2][3] Liquor Business Development - The liquor segment reported revenue of 1.178 billion yuan in H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 20.6%, with a gross margin of 67.6% [2] - The company is focusing on product innovation and market integration following the acquisition of Guizhou Jinsha, aiming for sustained growth in the liquor business [2][3] Dividend and Earnings Forecast - The company declared an interim dividend of 0.373 yuan per share, a year-on-year increase of 29.97%, with a payout ratio of 25.72% [3] - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected at 1.69 yuan, 1.88 yuan, and 2.15 yuan respectively [3][4]