常熟银行：业绩超预期，成长型标杆终会得到周期验证

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Changshu Bank [2][8][12] Core Views - Changshu Bank's performance in the first half of 2024 exceeded expectations, with a revenue growth of 12% year-on-year and a net profit growth of 19.6% [2][3][8] - The bank's asset quality remains strong, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio stable at 0.76% in Q2 2024, and a provision coverage ratio of approximately 539% [2][3][8] Summary by Sections Market Data - As of August 20, 2024, the closing price is CNY 6.90, with a one-year high/low of CNY 9.05/CNY 6.24 [1] - The bank's market capitalization is CNY 20,063 million, with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.73 [1][8] Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2024E is projected at CNY 10,776.46 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9.18% [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach CNY 3,849.39 million in 2024E, reflecting a growth rate of 17.31% [2] - The bank's return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to be 14.29% in 2024E [2] Revenue Drivers - Interest income increased by 6% in 1H24, contributing 5.4 percentage points to revenue growth, despite a narrowing interest margin [3][9] - Non-interest income surged by 57%, driven by nearly doubling investment income, contributing 6.6 percentage points to revenue growth [3][9] Loan and Deposit Trends - Loan growth slowed to 11.3% in Q2 2024, with corporate loans accounting for nearly 70% of new loans [4][7] - Deposit growth was robust at 16.7% in Q2 2024, with a focus on optimizing deposit structure to reduce funding costs [4][7] Asset Quality - The bank's NPL generation rate is estimated at 0.9% for 1H24, reflecting a slight increase from 0.6% in 2023, but remains manageable [8][12] - The bank has effectively managed asset quality without utilizing existing provisions, relying on incremental provisions for risk mitigation [8][12] Investment Outlook - The report expresses confidence in Changshu Bank's ability to maintain strong revenue and profit growth, supporting a valuation premium recovery [8][12] - The forecast for net profit growth is maintained at 17.3% for 2024, with slight adjustments for 2025-2026 due to revised margin and credit cost assumptions [8][12]