铜行业深度报告（II）：铜消费的韧性及弹性：中国四大用铜行业远期铜消耗量分析展望

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the copper industry, indicating a strong growth phase for global copper consumption from 2024 to 2027, with an expected increase of 11.3% to 11.345 million tons [2][11]. Core Insights - Global copper consumption is entering a cyclical strong growth phase, with an average annual growth rate of approximately 2.88% expected during 2024-2027 [11]. - China's copper consumption is projected to grow significantly, with the four major copper-consuming industries (appliances, transportation, construction, and electricity) expected to increase their copper usage by 325,000 tons, reaching 1.4546 million tons by 2027, representing a CAGR of 6.3% [2][29]. - The report highlights the resilience and elasticity of copper consumption in China, driven by the transition to low-carbon energy and new production capabilities [10][29]. Summary by Sections Global Copper Consumption - Global copper consumption is expected to rise by 11.3% to 11.345 million tons from 2024 to 2027, with a historical average growth rate of 2.85% over the past 30 years [11]. - The concentration of global copper consumption is high, with China accounting for 58.2% of total consumption in 2023 [16][17]. Chinese Copper Consumption - In 2023, the four major industries accounted for 79% of China's total copper consumption, with a total of 1.1397 million tons [2]. - The appliance industry is projected to have a CAGR of 4.4% from 2023 to 2027, with total copper consumption reaching 301,000 tons [31]. - The transportation sector is expected to see a CAGR of 16.3%, with total copper consumption reaching 235,000 tons by 2027 [33][34]. - The construction industry is projected to have a modest CAGR of 1.6%, with copper consumption reaching 120.4 thousand tons by 2027 [2]. - The electricity investment sector is expected to grow at a CAGR of 5.5%, with total copper consumption reaching 3.69 million tons during the same period [2]. Industry Outlook - The copper market is anticipated to remain in a high prosperity cycle, with supply constraints likely to persist due to rigid upstream supply and strong downstream demand [4]. - The report notes an increase in the allocation of public funds to the copper industry, indicating a growing interest from institutional investors [4]. Related Companies - Key companies mentioned in the report include Zijin Mining, Western Mining, Tongling Nonferrous Metals, Jinchuan Group, and Jiangxi Copper [4].