苏轴股份：海外市场持续带来增量，Q2业绩略超预期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Suzhou Universal Axle Co Ltd (430418 BJ) [1] Core Views - Overseas markets continue to drive growth with Q2 performance slightly exceeding expectations [1] - The company's overseas revenue reached 167 million yuan in H1 2024, up 23 5% YoY [3] - Overseas revenue accounted for 46 7% of total revenue in H1 2024, up from 42 3% in 2023 [3] - Overseas gross margin improved to 44 2% in H1 2024, up 6 8pct from H1 2023 [3] - The company achieved revenue of 358 million yuan in H1 2024, up 17 94% YoY [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders reached 74 million yuan in H1 2024, up 33 99% YoY [3] Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to grow from 636 million yuan in 2023 to 1 166 billion yuan in 2026 [1] - Net profit is expected to increase from 124 million yuan in 2023 to 241 million yuan in 2026 [1] - EPS is forecasted to rise from 0 92 yuan in 2023 to 1 78 yuan in 2026 [1] - ROE is projected to improve from 17% in 2023 to 19% in 2026 [1] - P/E ratio is expected to decline from 14 3 in 2023 to 7 3 in 2026 [1] Operational Highlights - The company is expanding into new downstream sectors including aerospace, defense, and robotics [8] - Its needle roller bearings are already used in industrial robot joints [8] - New cross roller bearings are being supplied to the defense sector [8] - The company is strengthening its position in high-end products [3] Cost Management - Gross margin improved to 38 1% in H1 2024, up 1 2pct from H1 2023 [5] - Net profit margin reached 20 6% in H1 2024, up 2 5pct from H1 2023 [5] - Management expenses grew only 2 4% YoY in H1 2024, slower than revenue growth [5] - The company is implementing comprehensive budget management and cost reduction measures [5] Valuation - Market cap stands at 1 77 billion yuan with a share price of 13 07 yuan [2] - Total shares outstanding are 135 million with 72 million shares in free float [2] - The company's P/B ratio is expected to decline from 2 5 in 2023 to 1 4 in 2026 [1]