HUAXI Securities·2024-08-21 02:38Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][6]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 23.74 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, a slight decrease of 0.5% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.705 billion yuan, an increase of 1.2% year-on-year. The interim dividend declared was 0.373 yuan per share, representing a 30% increase compared to the same period last year [2][3]. Summary by Sections Beer Business Performance - The beer segment generated revenue of 22.57 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, down 1.4% year-on-year, with EBIT of 6.365 billion yuan, up 2.6% year-on-year. Adjusting for capacity optimization and employee compensation costs, EBIT would be 6.384 billion yuan, reflecting a 1.3% increase year-on-year. Beer sales volume was 6.348 million tons, down 3.4% year-on-year, with an average price of 3,554 yuan per ton, up 2.0% year-on-year. Premium and above beer sales saw over 10% growth, with brands like "Heineken," "Old Snow," and "Red Duke" achieving over 20% growth [3][4]. Baijiu Business Restructuring - The baijiu segment reported revenue of 1.18 billion yuan, a significant increase of 20.6% year-on-year, with EBITDA remaining stable at 41.3 million yuan. The company has actively restructured its baijiu business, focusing on brand renewal, price control, inventory management, and customer development. The national flagship product "Abstract" saw sales growth exceeding 50%, contributing approximately 70% to baijiu revenue [4][5]. Profitability and Shareholder Returns - The company achieved a gross margin of 46.9%, up 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, with beer and baijiu segments reporting gross margins of 45.8% and 67.6%, respectively. The increase in gross margin is attributed to reduced cost pressures in the beer segment and improvements in the baijiu segment. The net profit margin for the first half of 2024 was 19.9%, an increase of 0.46 percentage points year-on-year. The interim dividend payout ratio increased from 20.1% to 25.7% [5][6]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 39.527 billion yuan, 41.367 billion yuan, and 42.842 billion yuan, respectively. EPS estimates for the same period have been revised to 1.62 yuan, 1.73 yuan, and 1.87 yuan. The PE ratios based on the closing price of 22.65 HKD per share are projected to be 13, 12, and 11 times for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [6][8].