Guoxin Securities·2024-08-21 04:08Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Resources Beer is "Outperform the Market" [1][3][5] Core Views - The beer business experienced a decline in sales volume but an increase in average price, leading to enhanced profitability [1][4] - The company reported total revenue of 23.744 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%, with an EBIT of 6.368 billion yuan, up 2.0% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.705 billion yuan, up 1.2% year-on-year [1][4] - The beer industry is under pressure, but the company continues to focus on high-end product development, with mid-range and above beer sales accounting for over 50% of total sales for the first time [1][4][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the beer business generated revenue of 22.566 billion yuan, down 1.4% year-on-year, with total sales volume decreasing by 3.4% due to weak industry demand and adverse weather conditions [1][4] - The average price per ton of beer increased by 2.0% year-on-year, supported by product structure upgrades [1][4] - The gross profit for the beer business was 10.34 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.1% year-on-year, while EBIT reached 6.365 billion yuan, reflecting a 2.6% increase year-on-year [1][4] Business Segments - The white liquor business saw a revenue increase of 20.6% year-on-year, primarily driven by the rapid growth of core products [1][4] - The EBIT for the white liquor segment was 0.48 billion yuan, down 32.4% year-on-year, attributed to increased expenses and depreciation [1][4] Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2024-2026, expecting total revenues of 39.62 billion yuan, 40.59 billion yuan, and 42.03 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 5.431 billion yuan, 5.751 billion yuan, and 6.212 billion yuan [1][5] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 13, 12, and 11 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, indicating a relatively low valuation [1][5]