donghua test(300354) 光大证券·2024-08-21 04:03Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 29.55 CNY [2][4] Core Views - The company achieved significant growth in H1 2024, with revenue reaching 276 million CNY, a 37.75% YoY increase, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 74 million CNY, up 65.11% YoY [1] - The structural mechanics testing and analysis system remains the core business, contributing 190 million CNY in revenue, a 36.24% YoY increase, with a high gross margin of 66.32% [1] - The PHM (Prognostics and Health Management) system and electrochemical workstation businesses are emerging as new growth drivers, with the latter experiencing a 135.51% YoY revenue increase [1] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from domestic substitution policies and increasing demand in both military and civilian sectors [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024E is projected at 1,241 million CNY, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 351 million CNY [3] - EPS for 2024E is forecasted at 1.46 CNY, with a P/E ratio of 20x [2][3] - ROE (Return on Equity) is expected to reach 23.79% in 2024E, up from 13.21% in 2023 [3] - Gross margin is projected to remain stable at around 66% from 2024E to 2026E [6] Business Segments - Structural mechanics testing and analysis system: Core business with strong growth potential, benefiting from military and academic clients [1] - PHM system: Expanding into civilian applications such as water engineering, port machinery, and wind power, with a gross margin of 65.45% [1] - Electrochemical workstation: Rapid growth in academic markets, with revenue reaching 26 million CNY in H1 2024, up 135.51% YoY [1] - Customized measurement and control analysis system: Emerging business with potential to compete with international players like MTS and Moog [1] Valuation and Projections - The company's market capitalization stands at 4.087 billion CNY, with a 3-month turnover rate of 86.09% [4] - Revenue growth is expected to maintain a CAGR of around 30% from 2024E to 2026E [3] - The P/B ratio is projected to decline from 4.8x in 2024E to 3.0x in 2026E, indicating improving valuation metrics [3][6] - EV/EBITDA is forecasted to decrease from 17.2x in 2024E to 9.3x in 2026E, reflecting strong earnings growth [6]