Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - Q2 revenue slightly exceeded guidance with an 11.2% YoY growth, driven by the turnaround of overseas business DH, contributing to a net profit of RMB 1.067 billion, up 5% YoY [3] - Mainland business revenue grew 11.1% YoY, contributing RMB 1.033 billion in net profit, while DH segment revenue grew 11.6% YoY, turning a profit of RMB 34 million compared to a loss of RMB 174 million in the same period last year [3] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 was RMB 2 billion, up 11% YoY, and adjusted net profit was RMB 1.25 billion, up 17% YoY [3] - Mainland store openings exceeded expectations, with 10,150 stores by the end of Q2 2024, up 18% YoY, and a record high of 3,258 reserve stores [3] - RevPAR declined 2.4% YoY in Q2 due to a high base, with Q3 revenue growth guidance of 2-5% [3] - The company announced a USD 1 billion share repurchase plan over five years in July [3] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 23.945 billion in 2024E to RMB 28.845 billion in 2026E, with a CAGR of 9.43% to 9.74% [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be RMB 3.702 billion in 2024E, RMB 4.068 billion in 2025E, and RMB 4.484 billion in 2026E [2] - EPS is expected to be RMB 1.15 in 2024E, RMB 1.27 in 2025E, and RMB 1.40 in 2026E [2] - P/E ratios are projected at 17.91x for 2024E, 16.30x for 2025E, and 14.79x for 2026E [2] Mainland Business Performance - Mainland store count reached 10,150 by Q2 2024, with 94% being franchised stores [3] - Q2 saw 567 new store openings and 466 net openings, with the full-year new store target revised upward from 1,800 to 2,200 [3] - Mainland room count reached 974,000, up 19% YoY, with franchised rooms accounting for 889,000, up 21.6% YoY [3] RevPAR and Revenue Guidance - Q2 RevPAR was RMB 244, down 2.4% YoY, with occupancy rate (OCC) at 82.6%, up 0.8 ppts YoY, and ADR at RMB 296, down 3.0% YoY [3] - Q3 revenue growth is guided at 2-5%, with RevPAR expected to decline by high single digits [3] Market Data - Closing price: HKD 22.55 [5] - 52-week low/high: HKD 20.80/HKD 36.30 [5] - P/B ratio: 5.75x [5] - Market cap: HKD 72.394 billion [5] Financial Ratios - ROIC: 16.32% in 2023A, projected to be 16.87% in 2024E [8] - ROE: 33.66% in 2023A, expected to decline to 18.38% by 2026E [8] - Gross margin: 34.46% in 2023A, projected to remain stable around 35.57-35.77% from 2024E to 2026E [8]
华住集团-S：2024Q2业绩点评：大陆开店超预期，RevPAR因高基数下滑