煤炭行业周报（2024年第33期）：国际高卡煤价延续强势，产业链正常去库

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [1] Core Views - Recent market dynamics show a slight decline in domestic thermal coal prices, while international high-calorie coal prices remain strong. The dual coke prices continue to show weakness. As of August 16, the CCI 5500 kcal coal price is reported at 842 RMB/ton, down 9 RMB/ton week-on-week. The annual long-term contract price for 5500 kcal coal at ports is 699 RMB/ton, down 1 RMB/ton [2][9][36] - The mid-term support for coal prices is expected to come from several factors: (1) no significant positive growth in domestic supply; (2) clear support from seasonal demand in the second half of the year; (3) recent inventory levels are decreasing compared to last year [2][38] Market Dynamics - Domestic thermal coal prices have shown a slight decline, with prices in major production areas also decreasing. For instance, Shanxi region prices fell by 6 RMB/ton, while prices in Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi decreased by 4-10 RMB/ton and 5 RMB/ton, respectively [9][22] - Internationally, the FOB price for 5500 kcal thermal coal from Newcastle, Australia is reported at 87.25 USD/ton, down 0.3% from the previous week [9] - The coal mining capacity utilization rate as of August 14 is 86.9%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous week. Coal inventory at 100 sample coal mines is 314,000 tons, up 0.4% week-on-week [13][21] Industry Perspective - The coal industry index has increased by 2.0%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.5 percentage points. Year-to-date, the coal index has risen by 3.8%, also outperforming the CSI 300 index by 6.3 percentage points [35] - The report highlights that while thermal coal prices have shown slight fluctuations, they are supported by seasonal demand and low inventory levels. The overall expectation is for coal prices to improve as inventory pressures ease and macroeconomic expectations become more favorable [2][38] Key Company Recommendations - Recommended companies include: 1. China Shenhua (A, H) and Shaanxi Coal & Chemical Industry for stable dividends 2. China Coal Energy (A, H) and Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (A, H) for low valuations and long-term growth potential 3. Pingmei Shenma Energy, Huaibei Mining, Shanxi Coking Coal, and others for mid-term benefits from demand recovery and production restoration [3]