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对房地产项目调整得房率的点评:规划调整,去风险、也去库存
国泰君安·2024-08-21 08:09

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate sector, consistent with the previous rating [1]. Core Insights - Recent adjustments in planning for real estate projects, particularly in increasing the usable area ratio, are gaining attention and are expected to facilitate the reduction of existing inventory [2]. - High usable area ratios, exceeding 90% in some new projects, are becoming a mainstream trend, especially in first-tier cities where demand is not lacking [2]. - The adjustment of usable area ratios is seen as a more straightforward and effective method compared to previous changes in land use from commercial to residential [2]. - The increase in usable area ratios can enhance the competitiveness of older projects by improving their price-performance ratio, aiding in inventory reduction [2]. - The current phase of risk mitigation in the real estate market is transitioning to focus on the de-inventory of unsold projects, necessitating attention to reinvestment strategies post-de-inventory [2]. Summary by Sections Recent Developments - There has been a notable increase in cases of planning adjustments for real estate projects, with some cities implementing new regulations to expedite these changes [2]. - The report highlights that the adjustment of usable area ratios is more direct compared to previous land use changes [2]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the overall decline in housing prices over the past two years has pressured older projects, but adjustments in usable area ratios can provide substantial improvements for inventory reduction [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the reinvestment of projects after inventory reduction [2]. Company Recommendations - The report suggests a dual strategy for investment: selecting low-leverage leading companies such as China Merchants Shekou, China New Group, and Poly Developments, while also focusing on companies undergoing restructuring like CIFI Holdings and Sunac China [2]. Financial Projections - The report includes financial forecasts for key companies in the sector, with all listed companies receiving an "Overweight" rating based on their projected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios [4].