Investment Rating - The investment rating for ZTO Express (2057.HK) is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report highlights stable single-package profitability and operational improvements leading to valuation recovery [2] - The express delivery industry continues to have growth potential, with an expected increase in package volume driven by e-commerce expansion [3] - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 40% in 2024, reflecting a commitment to enhancing shareholder returns [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2024, ZTO Express achieved a package volume of 8.452 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%. The adjusted net profit was 2.8 billion, up 10.9% year-on-year [2] - The core revenue per package in Q2 2024 was 1.24 RMB, a decrease of 0.12 RMB (-8.8%) from the previous quarter but stable year-on-year [2] - The core cost per package decreased by 0.02 RMB to 0.65 RMB, with a reduction in line-haul transportation costs by 0.03 RMB (-6.8%) [2] Industry Outlook - The express delivery industry is expected to maintain growth, supported by the rise of live e-commerce and increased penetration of online shopping [3] - The competitive landscape is anticipated to stabilize, reducing price competition in the industry [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profits for ZTO Express from 2024 to 2026 are 10.562 billion, 12.164 billion, and 13.483 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.7%, 15.2%, and 10.8% [6] - The company is positioned to achieve steady growth in both package volume and profitability due to its scale and management advantages [6]
中通快递-W：24Q2单票盈利维持稳定，看好经营改善下估值修复