交通运输行业快评报告：7月航空数据跟踪点评

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" with expectations of an index increase of over 10% relative to the market in the next six months [3]. Core Insights - July marks the peak season for air travel, with a significant month-on-month increase in total civil aviation turnover. Both domestic and international passenger volumes continue to grow, although ticket prices are under pressure, with the average price for domestic economy class (excluding tax) in July 2024 down 15% compared to the same period in 2023 and down 2% compared to 2019 [1]. - The aviation supply and demand are expected to continue improving, benefiting the performance of listed airlines, thus maintaining the "Outperform the Market" rating for the industry [1]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - In July 2024, total civil aviation turnover reached 136.3 billion ton-kilometers, a year-on-year increase of 19.9% and a month-on-month increase of 12.8%. Domestic routes grew by 8% year-on-year, while international routes surged by 53.2% [1]. - From January to July 2024, total civil aviation turnover increased by 30% year-on-year, with passenger volume reaching 420 million, a year-on-year growth of 21%. Compared to the same period in 2019, the growth rate is 10%. International routes saw a passenger volume of 35.8 million, up 205.3% year-on-year, recovering to 83.5% of the 2019 level, while domestic routes grew by 14.7% year-on-year, up 13.6% compared to 2019 [1]. - The six listed airlines reported a year-on-year change in RPK (Revenue Passenger Kilometers) and ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) of +18.4% and +14%, respectively, with month-on-month changes of +18.3% and +17.8%. Domestic routes saw a month-on-month change of +19.2% and +19%, while international routes changed by +16.2% and +14.8% [1]. Capacity and Utilization - The overall passenger load factor for civil aviation from January to July 2024 was 82.5%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points compared to the first half of the year. In July, the load factor for the six listed airlines was 83.3%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4 percentage points. Among these airlines, only Eastern Airlines and Juneyao Airlines saw a slight decrease in load factor, while the other four experienced increases [1]. - As of the end of July, the number of operational aircraft for the six listed airlines was 3,206, a 1.2% increase from the end of the previous year, with a net increase of one aircraft from the previous month. Southern Airlines and Air China each added two aircraft, while Eastern Airlines reduced its fleet by four aircraft. The pace of fleet introduction is expected to maintain low growth [1].