交通运输行业快评报告：7月快递行业数据跟踪点评

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating an expected relative increase of over 10% in the industry index compared to the broader market within the next six months [3]. Core Insights - In July, online retail sales of physical goods grew rapidly, driving significant increases in express delivery volumes, demonstrating strong performance even in the off-season. However, competitive pricing pressures remain, leading to a decline in overall unit prices. It is anticipated that price competition may ease due to cost constraints, and leading companies maintain strong competitive advantages. Current valuations of major stocks are at relatively low historical levels, suggesting opportunities for valuation recovery [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Sections Retail Sales Performance - In July, the online retail sales of physical goods increased by 13.7% year-on-year, with total retail sales from January to July reaching 7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%. This accounted for 25.6% of total consumer retail sales, up by 0.3 percentage points from the previous value [1]. Express Delivery Industry Growth - In July, the express delivery business revenue reached 110.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.1%, with a month-on-month increase of 5.5 percentage points. The business volume reached 14.26 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 22.2%, with a month-on-month increase of 4.5 percentage points. The average price per piece was 7.77 yuan, down by 2.3% month-on-month. From January to July, the express delivery business revenue totaled 763.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.0%, while the business volume reached 94.42 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 23.0% [1]. Industry Concentration and Competition - The industry concentration index (CR8) for express delivery services in July was 85.2%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points, indicating relatively stable concentration levels. The market share of leading companies is expected to increase further due to various factors. In July, the business volumes for major companies were as follows: SF Express at 1.03 billion pieces, Yunda at 2.01 billion pieces, YTO Express at 2.138 billion pieces, and Shentong at 1.949 billion pieces, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.6%, 27.8%, 26.5%, and 35.4%, respectively. Despite the off-season, leading companies experienced further increases in volume, although pricing pressures continue [1].