Jiangshan Oupai(603208) 国泰君安·2024-08-21 11:40Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][11]. Core Views - The company's performance is under short-term pressure due to downstream demand, but channel structure is continuously improving, and the expansion of agency channels and non-real estate business is expected to drive steady growth in performance [3][4]. - The company achieved revenue of 1.442 billion yuan in H1 2024, down 10.0% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 105 million yuan, down 26.1% year-on-year [4]. - The revenue for Q2 2024 was 816 million yuan, a decrease of 11.3%, with a net profit of 76 million yuan, down 8.7% [4]. - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024-2026 has been revised down to 298 million, 344 million, and 398 million yuan, respectively [4]. - The target price has been adjusted to 25.20 yuan from the previous 29.74 yuan, based on comparable company valuations [4][11]. Financial Summary - The company reported a revenue of 3.209 billion yuan in 2022, which increased to 3.738 billion yuan in 2023, but is expected to decrease to 3.557 billion yuan in 2024, followed by growth to 3.913 billion yuan in 2025 and 4.304 billion yuan in 2026 [5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company was -299 million yuan in 2022, turning positive to 390 million yuan in 2023, but is projected to decrease to 298 million yuan in 2024 [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 1.68 yuan in 2024, increasing to 1.94 yuan in 2025 and 2.25 yuan in 2026 [5]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is actively adjusting its channel structure, aiming to reduce the proportion of direct engineering business to 20-25% from over 30% in 2023, while increasing the construction of distribution and agency channels [4]. - The number of franchise distributors increased by 7,809 in Q2 2024, a growth of 155.8%, indicating a rapid expansion of income scale from agency channels [4].