SXLY(002627) 国泰君安·2024-08-21 12:40Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company, with a target price of 6.46 CNY [5] Core Views - The company's performance is in line with expectations, with a focus on price increases and progress in asset injections [3] - The company has shifted its focus to its core business by divesting part of its transportation operations, leading to improved profitability [3] - Tourism services now account for 70% of revenue, up from 23%, contributing significantly to the margin improvement [3] - The company expects growth in its main business driven by higher tourist volumes and potential price increases in 2024 [3] Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to decline by 49.2% in 2024E to 813 million CNY, but is expected to grow by 10.7% and 10.3% in 2025E and 2026E, respectively [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 114 million CNY in 2024E, with a 14.1% and 12.3% growth in 2025E and 2026E, respectively [1] - EPS is expected to be 0.16 CNY in 2024E, increasing to 0.18 CNY and 0.20 CNY in 2025E and 2026E, respectively [1] - ROE is projected to improve from 3.6% in 2024E to 4.4% in 2026E [1] Business Performance - In H1 2024, the company reported revenue of 340 million CNY, a 61% decline YoY, with a gross profit of 109 million CNY and a gross margin of 32%, up by 18 pct [3] - Tourism services revenue increased by 16% to 238 million CNY, while transportation services revenue declined by 75% to 181 million CNY [3] - The company's net profit margin improved to 15.85%, up by 8.9 pct, driven by the shift in business focus [3] Key Focus Areas - The company is closely monitoring the progress of asset injections, particularly the operational rights of the Three Gorges Dam scenic area [3] - Future growth is expected to be driven by higher tourist volumes and potential price increases in 2024 [3] Valuation Metrics - The company's P/E ratio is 29.91 for 2024E, decreasing to 23.35 by 2026E [1] - The P/B ratio is 1.08 for 2024E, with a slight decline to 1.03 by 2026E [10] - The EV/EBITDA ratio is projected to decrease from 5.43 in 2024E to 3.87 in 2026E [10]