Market Reaction - The victory of Sanae Takaichi in the LDP presidential election is interpreted as a signal for the potential return of "Abenomics," leading to a rapid market revaluation[4] - The Nikkei 225 index surged over 4%, marking the largest single-day increase in months[5] - The Japanese yen depreciated by 1.5% against the US dollar, approaching the psychological level of 150, and hit a historical low against the euro[5] Bond Market Impact - The yield on Japan's 40-year government bonds soared by 14 basis points to 3.52%, reflecting expectations of increased fiscal spending[5] - The bond market faces pressure due to anticipated government debt issuance, which could lead to a sell-off if not managed with a safety net[10] Economic Policy Outlook - Takaichi emphasized prioritizing inflation control, proposing increased subsidies to local governments and potentially lowering consumption tax[5] - Her stance against interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan reinforces market expectations for continued accommodative monetary policy[4] Global Market Dynamics - The interplay between Japanese and US monetary policies is injecting new momentum into global risk assets, benefiting equities and emerging markets[10] - The US dollar's trajectory is complicated; while the yen's weakness supports the dollar, rising global risk appetite diminishes the dollar's appeal as a safe haven[10] Investment Strategy - Investors are adjusting positions in anticipation of fiscal stimulus, favoring high-dividend and high-yield assets while navigating a complex selection of options[11]

[Table_Title] 宏观研究报告 2025年9月30日 周 浩 +852 2509 7582 hao.zhou@gtjas.com.hk 4.00 4.02 4.04 4.06 4.08 4.10 3.40 3.50 3.60 (%) (%) 美国2年期国债收益率 美国10年期国债收益率（右轴） 2:30 鲍威尔讲话 2:00 决议发布 [Table_Summary] 降息大幕开启，美债能看多做多么？ 9 月 FOMC 会议前后美债利率走势呈 V 字形 资料来源： Bloomberg, 国泰君安国际。 研 究 报 告 研 究 报 告 海 外 宏 观 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 Page 1 of 6 证 券 宏 观 美联储召开 9 月 FOMC 会议，仅新任理事米兰投票反对并支持 50bp 降息，包括 上次会议投出反对票的理事沃勒和鲍曼在内的其他 11 位委员均赞成降息 25bp， 并未出现市场预期的较大分歧。但是，看似"团结"的美联储背后实则面临劳动 力市场与通胀数据相悖的困境，2026 年或许才是对美联储独立性的真正考验。 本次会议展现出美联储超出市场预期的一致独立性，使市场短期内不 ...

2025年9月26日 [Table_Title] 宏观研究报告 周 浩 黄凯鸿 +852 2509 7582 +852 2509 7214 hao.zhou@gtjas.com.hk kaihong.huang@gtjas.com.hk [Table_Summary] 越南 8 月经济："对等关税"后进出口放缓 -3,000 -2,000 -1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 2021-08 2021-11 2022-02 2022-05 2022-08 2022-11 2023-02 2023-05 2023-08 2023-11 2024-02 2024-05 2024-08 2024-11 2025-02 2025-05 2025-08 贸易余额（右轴） 出口同比增速 进口同比增速 （%） （百万美元） 资料来源： Bloomberg ，国泰君安国际。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 Page 1 of 6 证 券 研 究 报 告 宏 观 越南进出口放缓，贸易顺差加大 越南 8 月工业总产量同比增长 8.9%，高于 7 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights that the U.S. stock market, particularly the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices, has experienced significant gains driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4][5] - The Federal Reserve's recent 25 basis point rate cut is characterized as a "risk management cut," aimed at preemptively addressing potential economic risks rather than responding to an existing recession [6][9] - The report emphasizes the importance of consumer spending, noting that U.S. retail sales data has exceeded expectations for three consecutive months, indicating strong consumer resilience [11][13] Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve has slightly upgraded its economic growth forecasts for this year and next, while maintaining stable inflation and unemployment rate predictions, signaling a robust economic foundation for the stock market [9][13] - The report suggests that the "preventive" nature of the recent rate cut is expected to stabilize economic expectations and support corporate earnings, thereby benefiting the stock market [4][7] Market Performance - The S&P 500 index recorded a cumulative increase of 2.0% and the Nasdaq 100 index saw a 3.5% rise in the ten trading days leading up to September 18, reflecting market anticipation of policy easing [5][11] - Small-cap stocks are expected to outperform large-cap stocks due to their higher reliance on floating-rate financing, benefiting more from the reduced borrowing costs following the rate cut [9][11] Sector Analysis - The telecommunications, information technology, and consumer discretionary sectors have shown the best performance in the current market environment [11][12] - The report indicates that the historical context of last year's "preventive" rate cut led to sustained gains in the stock market, suggesting a potential repeat of this trend under similar economic conditions [11][13]

Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4%-4.25%[4] - In August 2025, non-farm payrolls increased by only 22,000, significantly lower than the 142,000 in August 2024[4] - The unemployment rate rose slightly from 4.2% in July to 4.3% in August 2025, compared to 4.2% in August 2024[4] Inflation Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-on-year increased by 2.9% in August 2025, while core CPI rose by 3.1%[4] - In August 2024, CPI was up 2.5% and core CPI was 3.2%, indicating a similar inflation level but with different trends[6] - Core CPI has shown a rising trend from 2.8% in April 2025 to 3.1% in August 2025, contrasting with the declining trend observed in 2024[8] Market Reactions and Policy Implications - The cautious 25 basis point cut reflects a shift towards signaling rather than aggressive policy changes[16] - Concerns over rising tariffs announced by President Trump may further increase inflation, complicating the Fed's decision-making[4] - The market's reaction to the rate cut was stable, with no significant fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields, indicating investor caution[4]

Economic Development - The 2025 Policy Address emphasizes "improving people's livelihoods" and "economic development" as its main themes, proposing several breakthrough policies to consolidate Hong Kong's status as an international financial center[6] - The government aims to foster emerging industries such as advanced manufacturing, life sciences, new energy, artificial intelligence, and data science to create high-quality jobs and enhance overall economic efficiency[5][7] Capital Market Initiatives - The government plans to assist mainland tech companies in financing through the "Tech Enterprise Channel" and improve the main board listing system and issuance mechanisms for structured products[8] - Initiatives include optimizing regulations for "same share, different rights" listings and exploring a T+1 settlement cycle to attract more overseas companies to list in Hong Kong[8] Currency and Bond Market Development - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) will introduce a new "Renminbi Business Funding Arrangement" to enhance liquidity in the offshore RMB market, supported by a currency swap agreement with the People's Bank of China[11] - Plans to upgrade financial infrastructure and promote offshore Chinese government bonds as collateral to expand the application of RMB assets in the bond market[9] Financial Technology Advancements - The HKMA will continue to advance the Ensemble project, promoting tokenized deposit products and facilitating the issuance of tokenized bonds[13] - The report highlights the importance of regulatory sandboxes to encourage banks to strengthen risk management capabilities and the establishment of a risk prevention system in the digital asset sector[13]

Economic Indicators - The U.S. Treasury market is showing significant sensitivity to economic cooling signals, with a notable decline in yields, particularly in the long end, where the 30-year Treasury yield dropped by 30 basis points since the beginning of the month[6] - The 5-year Treasury yield fell nearly 10 basis points following the release of August non-farm payroll data, reflecting a strong correlation with the Bloomberg Labor Market Surprise Index[7] - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics revised non-farm employment numbers down by 910,000 over the past year, marking the largest revision since 2000, which indicates potential issues with statistical methods in the post-pandemic era[8] Labor Market Insights - The New York Fed's survey indicates that the probability of unemployed individuals finding a job within three months has decreased to 44.9%, while the probability of being unemployed within the next year has risen to 39.1%[8] - The market widely anticipates three rate cuts of 25 basis points each within the year due to the weakening labor market[8] Federal Reserve Policy - Fed Chair Jerome Powell's stance has shifted to a more dovish tone, emphasizing employment downside risks and removing the "zero lower bound" language from policy statements, reinforcing the "maximum employment" goal[14] - Political pressures on the Fed are increasing, with President Trump publicly pressuring Powell and pushing for appointments of pro-Trump individuals to the Fed Board, raising concerns about the Fed's independence[15] Market Dynamics - The current market pricing for long-term rates reflects caution due to uncertainties surrounding policy, fiscal sustainability, and the Fed's independence, with long-term rates potentially offering attractive duration exposure as short-term rates decline rapidly[17] - Short-term Treasuries are viewed as a "safe haven" but carry structural risks due to their high reflection of rate cut expectations, which compresses yield potential[19]

Core Insights - The report discusses the potential impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions on the U.S. stock market, particularly in September, which historically shows weak performance for the S&P 500 index [3][4][15] - The S&P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index have shown limited gains of 0.97% and 0.89% respectively since the Jackson Hole meeting, indicating a phase of profit-taking adjustments in the market [3][4] - The optimism surrounding technology sectors, particularly artificial intelligence and semiconductors, has been a key driver for the U.S. stock market, with Alphabet's stock rising significantly due to a favorable court ruling [5][10][11] Market Performance - Historically, the S&P 500 index has experienced an average decline of 4.0% in September, with the performance in recent years showing a consistent trend of weakness [14][15] - The report highlights that the ISM manufacturing PMI for August was 48.7, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity, which has contributed to market concerns [5][11] Company-Specific Developments - Alphabet's stock surged over 9% following a court ruling that allowed the company to maintain its Chrome browser and Android operating system without structural separation, alleviating investor concerns [6][8] - The favorable ruling is seen as a "low-cost penalty" for Alphabet, which has boosted market confidence and resulted in a significant increase in its market capitalization [8][10] Employment Data Impact - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is expected to influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, with recent ADP employment data showing a significant drop in job growth, which could affect market expectations [11][13] - The report notes a "see-saw" relationship between ADP and non-farm employment data, suggesting that if this trend continues, it may lead to unexpected impacts on market sentiment regarding interest rate cuts [11][13]

Cross-Chain Technology Comparison - Mainstream cross-chain technology solutions can be categorized into three types: Relay Chain/Side Chain, Hash Time Lock/Atomic Swap, and Cross-Chain Bridge (Notary Model) [2] - Relay Chain/Side Chain relies on a central hub to verify and coordinate communication between sub-chains, akin to the "TCP/IP protocol" of blockchains [2] - Hash Time Lock/Atomic Swap ensures that transactions on different chains either succeed or fail simultaneously, maintaining atomicity [2] - Cross-Chain Bridge utilizes a group of trusted notary nodes to monitor events on the source chain and execute corresponding operations on the target chain [2] Trust Models and Challenges - Relay Chain/Side Chain centralizes trust in the security and consensus of the relay chain, while Hash Time Lock is decentralized and does not require trust in third parties [2] - Cross-Chain Bridges face centralization risks as they depend on notary nodes, which may be compromised [2] - The complexity of the relay chain architecture and the reliance on its security can pose challenges for overall network safety [2] Value and Future Trends - The integration of alliance chains with public chains is a strategic choice to overcome limitations and enhance trust and value [3] - Cross-chain interoperability is essential for breaking down "value islands" and enabling asset flow across different chains, which is crucial for the digital economy's growth [3] - Establishing a "trusted institution whitelist" for cross-chain verification nodes can enhance compliance and security, particularly in regulated industries [14] Cost and Governance Considerations - Cross-chain protocols incur high development and maintenance costs due to the need for state synchronization and transaction validation across heterogeneous chains [14] - Governance challenges arise from the need to create unified rules between the strong regulatory models of alliance chains and the community-driven governance of public chains [14] - The potential for significant losses from security breaches in cross-chain bridges highlights the need for robust security measures [14]

Group 1 - Investment Rating: Buy (Maintained) [1] - Target Price: HK$52.00, unchanged from previous target [1] - Current Share Price: HK$44.10 [1] Group 2 - The company reported strong performance in Q2 2025, with revenue growth of 3.9% year-on-year and 18.6% quarter-on-quarter, reaching RMB 437.3 billion [6] - Net profit for Q2 2025 increased by 22.2% year-on-year and 78.1% quarter-on-quarter, totaling RMB 11.1 billion [6] - The overall revenue for the first half of 2025 grew by 2.6% year-on-year to RMB 806.1 billion, while net profit rose by 14.0% to RMB 17.3 billion [6] Group 3 - The company's strategic transformation is yielding results, with the electric vehicle (EV) business growing by 60.6% year-on-year [6] - AI data center business also showed significant growth, with a notable increase in AI server shipments [6] - The consumer electronics segment faced short-term pressure, but operational improvements and product structure optimization are enhancing profit margins [6] Group 4 - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are RMB 213.2 billion, RMB 241.9 billion, and RMB 274.5 billion respectively [7] - Expected net profit for the same period is RMB 5.4 billion, RMB 7.3 billion, and RMB 9.5 billion respectively [7] - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 2.388, RMB 3.245, and RMB 4.204 respectively [7] Group 5 - The automotive intelligent system revenue is projected to grow significantly, reaching RMB 28.6 billion in 2025 [7] - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 7.6% in 2025 to 8.5% in 2027 [11] - The company maintains a strong balance sheet with a net gearing ratio of 16.7% for FY25 [7][11]