电力及公用事业行业深度报告：多维度解析用电量增长

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Perform-A" rating for the electricity and public utilities sector [1]. Core Insights - The rapid development of emerging industries and robust industrial replenishment have driven the recent electricity consumption growth, which has exceeded expectations. Since 2020, electricity consumption growth has consistently outpaced GDP growth, with a year-on-year increase of 6.70% in 2023 and 8.10% in the first half of 2024, surpassing GDP growth by 1.5 and 3.1 percentage points respectively [1][8]. - The structural transformation of industries and the swift development of emerging sectors have led to an increase in electricity consumption per unit of GDP. The share of the tertiary sector in GDP has risen, enhancing its positive impact on overall electricity consumption growth [1][20]. - The current economic environment shows a contradiction where demand is weaker than production, particularly in the manufacturing sector led by emerging industries, which has resulted in a significant expansion of production capacity [1][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Reasons for Recent Exceeding Electricity Consumption Growth - The correlation between electricity consumption and GDP has shown strong ties over the past two decades, with distinct phases influenced by economic cycles and structural changes. From 2000 to 2011, electricity growth was higher than GDP growth, while from 2012 to 2019, it was lower. Since 2020, electricity growth has outpaced GDP growth for four consecutive years [1][8][9]. - The rapid development of emerging industries and strong industrial replenishment are identified as the main factors for the recent electricity consumption growth exceeding GDP growth [1][8]. 2. Potential Growth Space for Emerging Industries - Predictions indicate that by 2030, the electricity consumption of data centers, 5G base stations, electric vehicle charging services, and the photovoltaic industry chain will account for at least 13.14% of total electricity consumption [1][8]. - The report emphasizes the significant regional characteristics of electricity consumption, highlighting that the eastern regions of China are the primary electricity load areas, with a consumption share exceeding 49% over the past five years [1][8]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on power companies with assets concentrated in regions where electricity supply is tight and where there is significant growth potential in electricity consumption. Companies such as WanNeng Power, ShenNeng Co., Zhejiang Energy, and Huaihe Energy are highlighted as key investment opportunities [1][8].