东兴证券：东兴晨报-20240821

Group 1: Core Insights - Global copper consumption is expected to enter a cyclical strong growth phase, with a projected increase of 11.3% to 113.45 million tons from 2024 to 2027, translating to an average annual growth rate of approximately 2.88% [1][8] - China's copper consumption outlook remains positive, with the four major copper-consuming industries (appliances, transportation, construction, and electricity) projected to increase their copper usage by 3.25 million tons to 14.546 million tons by 2027, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.3% [1][8] - The appliance industry is expected to see an average CAGR of 4.4% in copper consumption from 2023 to 2027, with total copper consumption reaching 3.01 million tons by 2027 [1][8] Group 2: Industry-Specific Insights - The transportation sector is projected to experience a CAGR of 16.3% in copper consumption from 2023 to 2027, with total consumption reaching 2.35 million tons by 2027, driven by traditional and new energy vehicles as well as charging infrastructure [2][8] - The construction industry is expected to have a modest CAGR of 1.6%, with copper consumption estimated at 1.204 million tons by 2027, influenced by urbanization trends and construction activity [9][8] - The electricity sector remains a core driver of copper consumption growth, with a projected CAGR of 5.5% from 2023 to 2027, leading to a total copper consumption of 36.9 million tons during this period [9][8] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The copper market is likely to continue experiencing a high prosperity cycle, with supply constraints and strong demand elasticity contributing to a tight market environment [10][8] - The supply side of the copper market is characterized by rigid growth due to macroeconomic and policy cycles, while demand is influenced by various external factors, leading to a scenario where copper prices are expected to remain resilient [10][8] - The increasing allocation of public funds to the copper industry, rising from 0.39% in Q2 2022 to 2.58% in Q2 2024, indicates growing confidence in the sector's prospects [10][8]