POP MART-泡泡玛特：收入利润超预期，国内海外双开花

Investment Rating - Maintains an OUTPERFORM rating with a target price of HK $48.90** [2][4] Core Views - **Revenue and Profit Exceed Expectations**: Pop Mart reported 1H24 revenue of **RMB 4.56 billion**, up **62% YoY**, with adjusted net profit of **RMB 1.02 billion**, up **90% YoY** [2][4] - **Domestic and Overseas Growth**: Domestic revenue grew **32% YoY** to **RMB 3.21 billion**, while overseas revenue surged **260% YoY** to **RMB 1.35 billion**, accounting for **30%** of total revenue [2][4][8] - **Gross Margin Expansion**: Gross margin improved by **3.6pct YoY** to **64%**, driven by higher sales prices, increased overseas business contribution, and improved production efficiency [4][8] Domestic Business - **Retail Store Performance**: Retail store revenue grew **25% YoY** to **RMB 1.47 billion**, with same-store sales up **14% YoY** [2][4] - **Online Channels**: Online revenue increased **34% YoY**, with strong growth in platforms like Tmall and Douyin [2][4] - **Store Expansion**: Net addition of **11 retail stores**, bringing the total to **374**, with further expansion planned [2][4] Overseas Business - **Rapid Growth**: Overseas revenue reached **RMB 1.35 billion**, up **260% YoY**, with **12 new retail stores** added [2][8] - **DTC Strategy**: Direct-to-consumer (DTC) strategy focused on Europe and Southeast Asia, with offline sales contributing **70%** of overseas revenue [2][8] - **Market Penetration**: Expansion into new markets like Vietnam, Netherlands, Italy, and Indonesia, with plans to open **50-60 stores** annually [2][8] Profit Structure - **Gross Margin Drivers**: Gross margin improved due to higher sales prices (**+2.7pct**), increased overseas business contribution (**+2.2pct**), and cost efficiencies (**+1.3pct**) [4] - **Expense Control**: Sales expense ratio decreased by **1.5pct YoY** to **29.7%**, while management expense ratio dropped by **2.2pct YoY** to **9.5%** [4] - **Adjusted Net Profit Margin**: Adjusted net profit margin rose **3.3pct YoY** to **22.3%** [4] IP and Product Development - **IP Revenue Growth**: Molly revenue grew **90% YoY** to **RMB 780 million**, while The Monsters revenue surged **3.5x YoY** to **RMB 630 million** [4][8] - **New IPs**: Successful launch of new IPs like Crybaby and Hirono, contributing to a more balanced revenue structure [4][8] - **MEGA and Plush Toys**: MEGA revenue grew **1.4x YoY** to **RMB 590 million**, while plush toy revenue surged **10x YoY** to **RMB 450 million** [4][8] Future Outlook - **Revenue Guidance**: Pop Mart expects **2024 revenue growth of at least 60%**, with overseas revenue growth exceeding **200%** [2][4] - **Profit Forecast**: Adjusted net profit for 2024-26 is projected to grow **97%**, **31%**, and **24%**, respectively, with adjusted net profit margins of **22.7%**, **23.2%**, and **23.7%** [4][8] - **Valuation**: The company is valued at **25x FY24 PE**, with a target market cap of **HK$ 64.8 billion [4]