Investment Rating - The investment rating for ZTO Express (02057.HK) is "Outperform" [3][15]. Core Views - The report highlights ZTO Express's focus on a balanced growth strategy, emphasizing service quality while achieving steady operational performance. In Q2 2024, the company reported a revenue of 20.69 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%, and an adjusted net profit of 5.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.0% [1][4]. - The company is transitioning from high volume to high quality, with a business volume of 8.45 billion parcels in Q2 2024, reflecting a 10.1% year-on-year growth despite a slight decline in market share due to intense price competition [1][4]. - ZTO Express's core express service price remained stable at 1.24 yuan per parcel, while the single parcel net profit (adjusted) was 0.33 yuan, showing resilience in profitability [10][12]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2024, ZTO Express achieved a revenue of 20.69 billion yuan, with a net profit of 4.04 billion yuan, down 4.1% year-on-year, and an adjusted net profit of 5.03 billion yuan, up 13.0% year-on-year [1][4]. - In Q2 2024, the company reported a revenue of 10.73 billion yuan, a 10.1% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.61 billion yuan, a 3.3% increase year-on-year [1][4]. - The company’s capital expenditure in Q2 2024 was 1.28 billion yuan, significantly down from 2.20 billion yuan in the same period last year, indicating a peak in capital spending has passed [10][12]. Profitability and Cost Analysis - The report indicates that the single parcel transportation cost was 0.39 yuan, down 6.8% year-on-year, while the single parcel transfer cost was 0.26 yuan, up 4.6% year-on-year [10][12]. - The company’s EBIT margin is projected to improve, with estimates for 2024-2026 showing a gradual increase in profitability metrics [2][13]. - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2024-2026 is 9.90 billion, 11.71 billion, and 13.36 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.2%, 18.2%, and 14.1% [12][13].
中通快递-W：专注平衡增长策略，经营业绩表现稳健