Haitong Securities·2024-08-22 01:10Investment Rating - The investment rating for Alibaba-SW (9988) is "Outperform the Market" [2] Core Insights - Alibaba reported a revenue of 243.2 billion yuan for Q1 FY2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 4%. However, operating profit decreased by 15% to 36 billion yuan, and Non-GAAP net profit fell by 9% to 40.7 billion yuan [5][6] - The company announced a share buyback plan totaling 5.8 billion USD, repurchasing 613 million shares, which reflects a strategic focus on core business operations [5][6] Financial Performance Summary - Q1 FY2025 revenue breakdown: - Taobao Group: Revenue of 113.37 billion yuan, down 1% year-on-year; customer management revenue increased by 1% to 80.12 billion yuan [6] - Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group: Revenue of 29.29 billion yuan, up 32% year-on-year, with international retail revenue increasing by 38% [7] - Cloud Intelligence Group: Revenue of 26.55 billion yuan, up 6% year-on-year, with adjusted EBITA increasing by 155% [7] - Local Services Group: Revenue of 16.23 billion yuan, up 12% year-on-year, with significant improvements in operational efficiency [7] - Cainiao: Revenue of 26.81 billion yuan, up 16% year-on-year, though adjusted EBITA decreased by 30% [10] Earnings Forecast - The forecast for Non-GAAP net profit for FY2025 to FY2027 is projected at 161.9 billion, 177.7 billion, and 190.6 billion yuan respectively, with a reasonable market capitalization range of 2.14 trillion to 2.47 trillion HKD, translating to a fair value range of 111-128 HKD per share [11][19] Valuation Methodology - The valuation methods applied include PE for Taobao Group (7-9x), PS for International Digital Commerce (1x), Local Services (2x), Cloud Intelligence (2x), and others [16]