Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" for both Hong Kong and US stocks [2]. Core Views - The company reported a slight profit exceeding expectations, with a continuous optimization of its customer structure [2]. - For the first half of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 20.69 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.04 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 4.1% [3][4]. - The adjusted net profit for the same period was 5.03 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.0% [3]. - The company completed a business volume of 15.623 billion pieces in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.8% [3]. Financial Performance - In Q2 2024, the company achieved revenue of 10.73 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, and a net profit of 2.61 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 2.8% [3][4]. - The adjusted net profit for Q2 was 2.81 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 10.9% [3]. - The adjusted profit per ticket increased slightly by 0.7% to 0.33 RMB, while the core revenue per ticket remained stable at 1.24 RMB, despite a 12% decline in the industry average [4]. Strategic Insights - The company is actively exploring a new balance between market share and profit margin amidst ongoing price competition in the industry [4]. - The revenue from direct customer business grew by 26.2% year-on-year, indicating a focus on high-quality development strategies [4]. - The company announced a dividend of 0.35 USD per share, highlighting its commitment to synchronizing dividends with growth [4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 12.73 RMB, 14.89 RMB, and 17.42 RMB, respectively [5]. - The company is assigned a 15x price-to-earnings (PE) valuation for 2024, leading to a target price of 208.57 HKD per share and 26.73 USD per share for Hong Kong and US stocks, respectively [4].
中通快递-W：利润略超预期，客户结构持续优化