7月社融数据点评：央行逆周期调节的货币政策空间打开

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Financial Data - As of July 2024, M2 increased by 6.30% year-on-year, up by 0.1 percentage points from the previous value[4] - M1 decreased by 6.60%, a decline of 1.60 percentage points compared to the previous value[4] - The total social financing (TSF) stock grew by 8.2% year-on-year, with new TSF in July amounting to 770.8 billion yuan, an increase of 8.20% year-on-year[4][9] Group 2: Credit Demand and Financing Trends - New RMB loans in July were -76.7 billion yuan, marking the first negative value since July 2005, a decrease of 117.2 billion yuan year-on-year[9] - Government bond net financing reached 691.1 billion yuan, an increase of 280.2 billion yuan compared to the same period last year[9] - Non-standard financing decreased by 75.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year reduction of 97 billion yuan[9] Group 3: Investment Recommendations and Risks - The central bank's counter-cyclical monetary policy space is expected to open up, with potential adjustments in response to recent financial data fluctuations[17] - Future government financing is anticipated to continue supporting TSF growth in the second half of 2024[9] - Risks include geopolitical tensions, unexpected adjustments in U.S. Federal Reserve policies, and domestic price changes exceeding market expectations[19]