Jiangshan Oupai(603208) 开源证券·2024-08-22 07:38Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [1][3]. Core Views - The company's performance in H1 2024 is under pressure, with a revenue of 1.44 billion yuan, down 9.95% year-on-year, and a net profit of 105 million yuan, down 26.06% year-on-year. The second quarter saw a revenue of 820 million yuan, down 11.3%, and a net profit of 80 million yuan, down 8.7% [3]. - Due to the ongoing adjustment in the real estate market, the profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been revised downwards, with expected net profits of 386 million, 418 million, and 460 million yuan respectively [3]. - The company's diversified channel development and strong brand influence support the "Buy" rating despite current challenges [3]. Revenue Breakdown - In H1 2024, revenue from various product categories was as follows: 808 million yuan from laminated doors, 253 million yuan from solid wood composite doors, and 93 million yuan from cabinet products, with year-on-year changes of -13.73%, -23.52%, and -21.06% respectively [4]. - The gross margins for these products were 21.39%, 18.85%, and 15.09%, reflecting year-on-year declines of 3.36, 2.87, and 7.29 percentage points [4]. - Revenue from distribution and bulk channels was 330 million and 1 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -24.66% and -7.96% [4]. - The engineering direct and factory agency channels showed strong performance, generating 400 million and 550 million yuan in revenue, with year-on-year changes of -33.75% and +27.63% respectively [4]. Profitability - The gross margin for H1 2024 was 22.2%, down 3.8 percentage points, while the net profit margin was 7.2%, down 3.2 percentage points [5]. - In Q2 2024, the gross margin was stable at 24.9%, and the net profit margin improved to 9.3%, up 0.3 percentage points [5]. Financial Forecast Summary - The company is projected to have revenues of 3.68 billion, 3.98 billion, and 4.35 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -1.5%, 8.2%, and 9.2% [6]. - The expected diluted EPS for the same years is 2.18, 2.36, and 2.59 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 7.6, 7.0, and 6.4 [6].