昇兴股份：金属包装龙头企业，海外业务拓展加速

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 225 to 260 million yuan in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 42.40% to 64.55% [3] - The company primarily engages in metal packaging, with a broad customer base including well-known domestic food and beverage brands [3] - In 2023, the company reported revenue of 7.095 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.60%, and a net profit of 333 million yuan, up 59.25% from the previous year [3] Summary by Sections Business Overview - The company specializes in the research, design, production, and sales of food and beverage packaging containers, mainly producing beverage cans and food cans [3] - The three-piece can business saw double-digit sales growth in 2023 due to recovering demand from beverage customers [4] - The company is expanding its overseas business, including a joint venture in Indonesia for food can production with a total investment of 48.092 million yuan [4] Financial Performance - The company’s revenue and net profit forecasts for 2024 to 2026 are as follows: - Revenue: 7.399 billion yuan (2024E), 7.898 billion yuan (2025E), 8.277 billion yuan (2026E) [5] - Net profit: 454 million yuan (2024E), 502 million yuan (2025E), 543 million yuan (2026E) [5] - The company’s gross margin improved to 13.45% in 2023, up 3.98 percentage points year-on-year, driven by the recovery of profit margins in the metal packaging business [6] Profitability Forecast - The company is expected to maintain a gross margin of around 14% from 2024 to 2026, with revenue growth rates projected at 4.54% (2024), 7.10% (2025), and 5.04% (2026) for the metal packaging sector [7] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.46 yuan (2024E), 0.51 yuan (2025E), and 0.56 yuan (2026E) [10] Valuation - The current closing price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 9.78 for 2024 and 8.84 for 2025, with a target valuation range of 6.50 to 6.97 yuan based on comparable companies [4][9]