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中国宏桥：高股息进一步体现，公允价值变动及减值制约业绩释放
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2024-08-22 08:45

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase in stock price of over 15% in the next 6 to 12 months [2][12]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated strong financial performance, with a significant increase in revenue and net profit. For the reporting period, the company achieved a revenue of 136.165 billion RMB, a year-on-year growth of 12%, and a net profit of approximately 11.461 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of about 273% [2][3]. - The company announced an interim dividend of 0.59 HKD per share, representing a payout ratio increase from 48% to 56%, with a dividend yield of 5.6% based on the closing price [2][3]. - The report highlights the company's strong dividend characteristics and the evolving structure of its business, emphasizing its "resource-rich" attributes [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Forecast: - 2023A: 136.165 billion RMB - 2024E: 182.545 billion RMB (34% growth) - 2025E: 199.568 billion RMB (9% growth) - 2026E: 217.674 billion RMB (9% growth) [2][3] - Net Profit Forecast: - 2023A: 11.461 billion RMB - 2024E: 20.963 billion RMB (83% growth) - 2025E: 24.793 billion RMB (18% growth) - 2026E: 29.876 billion RMB (21% growth) [2][3] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2023: 1.21 RMB - 2024E: 2.21 RMB - 2025E: 2.62 RMB - 2026E: 3.15 RMB [2][3] - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: - 2023: 8.1 - 2024E: 4.4 - 2025E: 3.8 - 2026E: 3.1 [2][3] Industry Insights - The report discusses the supply-demand dynamics in the alumina market, noting that while there is an oversupply, production may be constrained by raw material bottlenecks. The dependence on imported bauxite, particularly from Guinea, poses risks to alumina production and pricing [3]. - The relationship between alumina and electrolytic aluminum prices is highlighted, with historical stability in their price ratio. The report suggests that the market may underestimate the benefits of alumina during periods of rising electrolytic aluminum prices [3].