上海瀚讯：军用区域宽带龙头，期待卫星领域新增量

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-B" rating for the company [2]. Core Viewpoints - The company is one of the few high-tech enterprises in China with independent R&D capabilities in broadband mobile communication systems, establishing a complete industrial chain layout in the 5G era, covering "chip-module-terminal-base station-system" [10][19]. - From 2018 to 2021, the company's revenue grew from 430 million to 730 million yuan, with a CAGR of 19.6%, while net profit increased from 100 million to 240 million yuan, achieving a CAGR of 31.8% [19]. - In 2023, the company faced external industry challenges, resulting in a revenue decline of 21.9% year-on-year to 310 million yuan and a net loss of 190 million yuan, a decrease of 321.7% year-on-year [19][20]. - The satellite internet industry is expanding, with China's market expected to reach 44.7 billion yuan by 2025, driven by global competition in satellite constellation construction [20][50]. - The military communication sector shows significant growth potential, with China's defense spending ranking second globally, indicating room for future increases [20][28]. Financial Performance and Valuation - The company’s revenue for 2022 was 400 million yuan, down 45.1% year-on-year, with a net profit of 86 million yuan, a decrease of 63.6% [3][19]. - The forecast for 2024-2026 predicts net profits of 99 million, 197 million, and 251 million yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 151.9%, 100.2%, and 27.1% respectively [3][19]. - The company's gross margin was 59.4% in 2022 but dropped to 43.3% in 2023 due to external pressures [3][20]. Industry Overview - The military broadband communication industry is a leading sector, with the company focusing on specialized networks for government and military applications, which account for a significant portion of the market [10][43]. - China's defense spending has been increasing, with a compound annual growth rate of 7.51% from 2013 to 2023, indicating a strong commitment to military modernization [28]. - The C4ISR system is crucial for military informationization, and the company is positioned to benefit from the growing demand for military communication systems [39][47].