Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for ZTO Express (2057.HK) [4] Core Insights - The company focuses on balanced growth, enhancing single-piece collection. In Q2 2024, ZTO Express achieved a total parcel volume of 8.45 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, with a market share of 19.6%, down by 2.0 percentage points. The revenue per single piece for express delivery was CNY 1.17, a decrease of 0.3% year-on-year, while the core revenue per piece was CNY 1.24. The sorting cost per piece was CNY 0.26, up by CNY 0.01 year-on-year, and the transportation cost per piece was CNY 0.39, down by CNY 0.03 year-on-year. The gross profit per piece was CNY 0.52, an increase of 2.6% year-on-year [3][9] - Operational efficiency continues to improve, with profitability optimizing. In Q2 2024, the gross profit reached CNY 3.62 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%, and net profit was CNY 2.61 billion, up by 3.3%. The adjusted net profit was CNY 2.81 billion, a growth of 10.9% year-on-year. For the first half of 2024, the gross profit was CNY 6.62 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.6%, and adjusted net profit was CNY 5.03 billion, up by 13%. The adjusted net profit per piece in Q2 2024 was CNY 0.33, an increase of 0.7% year-on-year. The company expects parcel volume in 2024 to be between 34.73 billion and 35.64 billion pieces, representing a year-on-year growth of 15% to 18% [3][9] - Profitability forecast and investment advice indicate that the company has the strongest scale effect and a robust, balanced franchise network. With industry demand continuing to exceed expectations, the company adheres to a quality operation strategy, achieving high-quality profitability. The net profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 remain unchanged at CNY 10.5 billion, CNY 12.1 billion, and CNY 14 billion, respectively, maintaining a "Buy" rating [3][9] Financial Data and Valuation - For 2022A, 2023A, and projections for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E, the revenue is projected to be CNY 35.377 billion, CNY 38.419 billion, CNY 44.526 billion, CNY 50.234 billion, and CNY 56.105 billion, respectively, with growth rates of 16%, 9%, 16%, 13%, and 12% [3][9] - The net profit for the same periods is projected to be CNY 6.809 billion, CNY 8.749 billion, CNY 10.542 billion, CNY 12.109 billion, and CNY 13.963 billion, with growth rates of 43%, 28%, 20%, 15%, and 15% [3][9] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be CNY 8.38, CNY 10.76, CNY 12.97, CNY 14.90, and CNY 17.18, with price-to-earnings ratios (P/E) of 17.6, 13.7, 13.2, 11.5, and 10.0 [3][9]
中通快递-W：业绩点评：单票调整后净利0.33元，专注平衡增长