山西证券：研究早观点-20240823

Group 1: Market Trends - The report highlights that electricity consumption growth has exceeded expectations due to the rapid development of emerging industries and strong industrial replenishment in related sectors [2][3] - The correlation between electricity consumption and GDP has shown significant variations influenced by economic cycles, structural changes in industries, and energy supply dynamics [2] - Since 2020, electricity consumption growth has consistently outpaced GDP growth, primarily driven by the expansion of emerging industries and manufacturing capacity [2][3] Group 2: Industry Insights - The report predicts that the electricity consumption share of emerging industries such as data centers, 5G base stations, electric vehicle charging, and photovoltaic manufacturing will reach at least 7.10%, 8.34%, and 13.14% in 2024, 2025, and 2030 respectively under optimistic, neutral, and pessimistic scenarios [3] - Regional characteristics of electricity consumption are significant, with the eastern region being the primary load area, accounting for over 49% of total electricity consumption in recent years [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on core regions with significant electricity consumption growth related to new productive forces, particularly in the Yangtze River Delta, Guangdong, Shandong, and Beijing [4] Group 3: Company Performance - China Telecom reported a revenue of 266 billion yuan in H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, with service revenue growing by 4.3% [8][9] - The company achieved a net profit of 21.8 billion yuan in H1 2024, reflecting an 8.2% increase year-on-year, with a capital expenditure of 47.2 billion yuan [8][9] - The mobile user base grew by nearly 10 million, reaching 417 million, with a stable increase in ARPU [9][10] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the long-term growth of electricity consumption is assured due to the rapid development of emerging industries and the ongoing electrification process [4] - It recommends focusing on power companies with significant electricity supply-demand imbalances and price advantages, such as Anhui Energy, Sheneng, and Zhejiang Energy [4] - For China Telecom, the forecast for net profit from 2024 to 2026 is 333.54 billion, 363.56 billion, and 392.09 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 0.36, 0.40, and 0.43 yuan [11]