AIA(01299) 国泰君安·2024-08-22 22:37Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for AIA Group Limited (1299) [1] Core Views - The report highlights strong growth in New Business Value (NBV) and sets an operational profit target for the next three years that exceeds expectations [2][4] - The current price of the stock is HKD 51.40, with a target price of HKD 89.80 per share, corresponding to a 2024 P/EV of 1.81 times [3][11] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 47.3% (actual rate) / 53% (fixed rate), meeting expectations [11] - The after-tax operating profit grew by 3.5% (actual rate) / 7% (fixed rate) [11] - The embedded value increased by 1.2% compared to the end of the previous year, primarily due to currency fluctuations and dividends [11] New Business Value (NBV) - The NBV for the first half of 2024 grew by 21% (actual rate) / 25% (fixed rate), exceeding expectations [11] - In Q2, the NBV growth rate was 5.6% (actual rate), showing a slowdown compared to Q1, attributed to a high base from the previous year [11] - Regionally, NBV growth in Hong Kong was 26%, driven by local customers and mainland visitors [11] - In mainland China, NBV growth reached 36%, with new branches contributing significantly [11] Operational Targets - Management has set a three-year target for compound growth in operating profit per share of 9%-11% from 2023 to 2026 [11] - This growth is expected to be driven by contributions from new business profitability and effective management of existing business [11] Dividend Policy - The interim dividend for 2024 is set at HKD 0.445 per share, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%, with a payout ratio of 50.4% [11]