机械设备行业深度报告：把握国产挖掘机“全球化+电动化”机遇

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the excavator industry, indicating a recovery phase after two cycles of decline, with expectations for sales to rebound in 2024 [5][15]. Core Insights - Excavators are primarily used in real estate, infrastructure, mining, agriculture, and water conservancy sectors, categorized by size into super large, large, medium, and small excavators [5][12]. - The excavator industry has experienced two major cycles since 2004, with the current phase indicating a bottoming out and potential recovery, as evidenced by a narrowing decline in sales [5][14]. - A large-scale equipment renewal policy has been introduced, stimulating demand through local implementation plans aimed at replacing outdated and high-pollution machinery [5][17]. - Domestic sales of excavators have shown signs of recovery, with a 6.23% year-on-year increase in sales by July 2024, while exports have also improved despite a decline [5][21]. - The report forecasts total excavator sales in China to reach 209,300 units in 2024, with further increases expected in subsequent years [5][15]. Summary by Sections 1. Globalization and Electrification Opportunities - Excavators are essential in construction and real estate, with various sizes serving different applications [12]. - The industry is poised for recovery after two cycles, with significant sales growth in 2021 and a gradual bottoming out in 2023 [14][15]. - Policies promoting equipment updates are expected to stimulate demand, with local governments actively supporting these initiatives [17][20]. 2. Sales Recovery and Export Improvement - Domestic excavator sales have increased, with a cumulative total of 59,641 units sold by July 2024, marking a positive trend [21][23]. - Exports have seen a decline of 12.3% year-on-year, but the rate of decline is slowing, indicating stabilization in overseas markets [21][23]. - The report emphasizes the importance of infrastructure investment in supporting domestic demand for excavators [31]. 3. Recommendations for Investment - The report recommends focusing on leading domestic manufacturers such as SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, and LiuGong, which are well-positioned for growth due to their strong brand recognition and comprehensive product lines [5][9].