房地产行业点评：销售环比改善，期待政策持续放松

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate sector [2]. Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing a downturn, with significant declines in sales volume and value, but there are signs of stabilization due to policy support [6][25]. - The report highlights that the sales area for commercial housing in the first seven months of 2024 decreased by 18.6% year-on-year, while the sales amount fell by 24.3% [3][6]. - The report anticipates that ongoing policy relaxations will help stabilize sales and improve market conditions [6][25]. Summary by Sections Industry Macro Data - In the first seven months of 2024, the total sales area of commercial housing was 54,149 million square meters, down 18.6% year-on-year, with a slight increase in growth rate compared to the first half of 2024 [3][6]. - The total sales amount reached 53,330 billion yuan, reflecting a 24.3% year-on-year decline, with residential sales down 25.9% [3][6]. - Real estate development investment totaled 60,877 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.2% year-on-year [3][6]. Sales Performance - Sales performance has shown signs of recovery, with a slight increase in sales area and amount in July 2024 compared to previous months [6][25]. - The report notes that the sales performance of residential properties is weaker than that of office and commercial properties [6][25]. - Regional sales data indicates that the Northeast region performed the best, while all regions experienced declines [6][25]. Investment Trends - Real estate investment in the first seven months of 2024 decreased by 10.2% year-on-year, with new construction area down 23.2% [16][23]. - The report suggests that investment data may stabilize as policies continue to support sales recovery [16][23]. - The report emphasizes that the willingness to acquire land and start new projects remains low, impacting overall investment trends [16][23]. Funding Sources - Funding for real estate development has decreased by 21.3% year-on-year, with domestic loans and self-raised funds also showing negative growth [23][24]. - The report indicates that the financing environment is tightening due to ongoing debt issues within the industry, but improvements are expected as policies are implemented [23][24]. Policy Environment - The report highlights that the central government is maintaining a relaxed policy stance to support the real estate market, which is expected to stabilize housing prices [25][29]. - The report notes that the housing price index in 70 cities is currently experiencing negative growth, reflecting weak sales performance [25][29]. - The report anticipates that leading companies in the real estate sector are positioned well for long-term investment due to their strong sales and market share potential [29].