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百度：More aggressive in Gen-AI empowered ads business transformation
BIDUBIDU(BIDU) 招银国际·2024-08-23 02:23

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Baidu with a target price of US180.50,downfromtheprevioustargetofUS180.50, down from the previous target of US183.00, indicating an upside potential of 101.1% from the current price of US89.74[3].CoreInsights−Baidu′s2Q24revenuewasRMB33.9billion,aslightdeclineof0.489.74 [3]. Core Insights - Baidu's 2Q24 revenue was RMB33.9 billion, a slight decline of 0.4% year-over-year, aligning with Bloomberg consensus. Non-GAAP net income was RMB7.4 billion, exceeding consensus by 9% due to effective control over sales and marketing expenses [2]. - The company is focusing on enhancing user experience through Gen-AI generated results, prioritizing this over short-term monetization, which may temporarily hinder ad revenue growth but is expected to improve long-term monetization prospects [2][10]. - Non-ad revenue grew by 10% year-over-year to RMB7.5 billion, now accounting for 28.2% of Baidu Core revenue, driven by AI-related GPU cloud revenue and cross-selling of CPU cloud services [2]. Financial Performance - In 2Q24, Baidu Core's online ads revenue was RMB19.2 billion, down 2.2% year-over-year, but slightly better than consensus expectations. The company anticipates a further decline in ad revenue growth in the near term, projecting a 3.4% year-over-year decline to RMB19.0 billion in 3Q24E [2][7]. - Baidu Core's gross profit margin (GPM) was 59.4% in 2Q24, down 1.1 percentage points year-over-year, while non-GAAP operating profit margin (OPM) improved to 26.1%, exceeding consensus by 1.4 percentage points due to stringent cost control [2][7]. Valuation and Forecast - The SOTP-based target price of US180.5 reflects a valuation of US71.6forBaiduCore,US71.6 for Baidu Core, US1.8 for Apollo ASD, US32.2forBaiduCloud,andUS32.2 for Baidu Cloud, and US64.1 in net cash. The valuation for iQIYI and other investments is set at US$10.8 [10][11]. - Revenue forecasts for FY24E, FY25E, and FY26E are RMB135.8 billion, RMB146.9 billion, and RMB157.9 billion respectively, with adjusted net profit estimates of RMB27.96 billion, RMB28.72 billion, and RMB31.94 billion [6][9].