八方股份：渠道内库存逐步消化，盈利能力改善可期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, citing the gradual normalization of inventory levels and the potential for improved profitability in the second half of 2024 [2][3] Core Views - The company's performance has been under pressure due to high industry inventory and slowing end-demand, particularly in the European e-bike market, where sales in Germany and the Netherlands declined by 4.55% and 6.79% respectively in 2023 [1] - Long-term demand for e-bikes remains strong, supported by government subsidies and infrastructure investments in Europe, low penetration in the US, and policy support in China [1] - The company has accelerated brand building and improved after-sales services, participating in major international exhibitions and launching a direct-to-dealer service system [1] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 1,764 million RMB in 2024 to 2,278 million RMB in 2026, with a CAGR of 12.92% [2] - Net profit is expected to increase from 146 million RMB in 2024 to 245 million RMB in 2026, with a CAGR of 15.92% [2] - The company's PE ratio is forecasted to decline from 29x in 2024 to 17x in 2026, indicating improving valuation metrics [2] Market Performance - The company's stock price has underperformed the CSI 300 index, with a relative decline of 41% over the past year [5] - Over the past three months, the stock has seen a relative decline of 16.54% and an absolute decline of 26.39% [6] Financial Health - The company's gross margin is expected to improve from 28.9% in 2023 to 31.1% in 2026, driven by better inventory management and cost control [7] - ROE is projected to increase from 4.6% in 2023 to 8.1% in 2026, reflecting improved profitability and efficiency [7] - The company maintains a strong balance sheet with a low debt-to-equity ratio, expected to remain below 23% through 2026 [7]