【NIFD季报】加大积极财政政策力度，深化财税体制改革——2024Q2中国财政运行

Investment Rating - The report emphasizes the need for a more proactive fiscal policy and deeper tax reform to address economic challenges, indicating a positive outlook for sectors benefiting from increased government spending and investment [3][42]. Core Insights - The fiscal performance in Q2 2024 reflects a normalization trend in the economy, with a notable decline in tax revenue due to downward pressure on economic growth and high base effects from VAT revenue [3][4]. - Non-tax revenue has shown positive growth, indicating a shift in revenue sources, while general public budget expenditures continue to follow a seasonal growth trajectory [3][4]. - The report highlights the challenges faced by local governments due to declining land sales and the need for increased fiscal support to manage debt risks effectively [3][4][42]. Summary by Sections 1. Fiscal Revenue Normalization - General public budget revenue in Q2 2024 was 55,036 billion CNY, showing a year-on-year decline of 6.4%, with tax revenue at 44,908 billion CNY, down 3.2%, while non-tax revenue increased by 13.7% to 10,128 billion CNY [7][10]. 2. Fiscal Expenditure Trends - General public budget expenditure in Q2 2024 reached 66,715 billion CNY, growing by 1.1% year-on-year, with central government expenditure increasing by 8.9% [14][16]. - Government fund expenditures continued to decline, with a 19.7% drop in Q2 2024, reflecting the impact of the real estate market adjustment [16][18]. 3. Fiscal Deficits and Debt Issuance - The combined fiscal deficit for the general public budget and government fund was 36,342 billion CNY in the first half of 2024, with a stable GDP ratio of 5.9% [18][20]. - Local government bond issuance decreased to 34,928 billion CNY in the first half of 2024, down 8,753 billion CNY from the previous year, indicating tighter fiscal conditions [21][23]. 4. Challenges Ahead - The report identifies potential challenges in the second half of 2024, including inflationary pressures in major economies and the need for coordinated monetary and fiscal policies to support economic growth [25][29]. - The ongoing low inflation and economic growth pressures highlight the difficulties in reversing the negative revenue growth trend, particularly in the context of local government land sales [29][42]. 5. Recommendations for Policy Action - The report advocates for a more aggressive fiscal policy, including increased local government bond issuance and enhanced coordination with monetary policy to stimulate demand and manage debt risks [42][43]. - It emphasizes the importance of tax reform and modernization of the governance system to improve fiscal sustainability and economic resilience [43][44].