爱玛科技2024H1业绩点评：单季收入超一致预期+中期分红30%

Investment Rating - Buy rating maintained for the company [1] Core Views - The company's Q2 2024 revenue exceeded consensus expectations, with a mid-term dividend payout ratio of 30% [1] - Q2 2024 revenue reached 5.64 billion yuan (+18.1% YoY), with net profit attributable to shareholders of 470 million yuan (+12.1% YoY) [1] - H1 2024 revenue was 10.59 billion yuan (+3.7% YoY), with net profit attributable to shareholders of 950 million yuan (+6.2% YoY) [1] - The company announced a mid-year dividend of 0.3 yuan per share, representing a 30% payout ratio [1] - Q2 revenue outperformed expectations, driven by both volume and price increases, with ASP rising by 120 yuan to 2005 yuan (+6% YoY) [1] - Overseas revenue in H1 2024 reached 120 million yuan (+41% YoY), accounting for 1% of total revenue, with Southeast Asia being a key growth area [1] - The company is expected to achieve its 20% revenue and net profit CAGR target under the equity incentive plan [1] Financial Performance - Q2 2024 gross margin increased by 2.3 percentage points YoY, while sales/management/R&D/financial expense ratios rose by 0.9/0.6/0.3/0.9 percentage points respectively [1] - Excluding equity incentive costs, Q2 net profit margin increased by 0.4 percentage points YoY [1] - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 23.6/27.2/30.5 billion yuan in 2024-2026, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.2/2.7/3.2 billion yuan [1] - EPS is forecasted to be 2.20/2.56/3.08/3.67 yuan for 2024-2026, with P/E ratios of 11.38/10.27/8.55/7.18x [2] - ROE is expected to be 23.7%/22.1%/20.9% for 2024-2026 [2] Industry and Company Outlook - The industry is benefiting from the "New National Standard" and "Replacement of Old Vehicles" policies, which are expected to boost demand and further consolidate market share for leading companies [1] - The company's performance is expected to be more elastic due to the low base effect, with potential catalysts from policy support and market consolidation [1] - The company's overseas expansion, particularly in Southeast Asia, is seen as a new growth driver [1] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow by 12.1%/15.3%/12.4% in 2024-2026, reaching 23.6/27.2/30.5 billion yuan [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow by 17.4%/20.1%/19.2% in 2024-2026, reaching 2.2/2.7/3.2 billion yuan [2] - Gross margin is forecasted to improve to 17.7%/17.8%/17.8% in 2024-2026 [2] - Operating cash flow is expected to increase significantly, reaching 4.5/4.8/5.3 billion yuan in 2024-2026 [3]