Shede Spirits (SH:600702) Guolian Securities·2024-08-23 08:33Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term pressure on performance, with expectations for a recovery in industry conditions [6] - Revenue and profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected to be 5.937 billion, 5.346 billion, and 5.591 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -16.16%, -9.95%, and +4.58% [11][12] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 968 million, 875 million, and 923 million yuan for the same period, with year-on-year changes of -45.33%, -9.69%, and +5.51% [11][12] - The company is expected to maintain a steady channel expansion, which will provide significant elasticity once business demand recovers [11] Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 3.271 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.28% year-on-year, and a net profit of 591 million yuan, down 35.73% year-on-year [11] - Q2 2024 revenue was 1.165 billion yuan, down 22.61% year-on-year, with a net profit of 41 million yuan, down 88.40% year-on-year [11] - The gross margin for Q2 2024 was 60.93%, a decrease of 11.21 percentage points year-on-year [11] - The company has increased its distributors by 154 compared to the end of 2023, indicating steady channel expansion [11] Financial Data and Valuation - The projected PE ratios for 2024-2026 are 17, 19, and 18 times respectively [11] - The company's total market capitalization is approximately 16.613 billion yuan [7] - The company's asset-liability ratio stands at 36.59% [7]