华润啤酒：公司半年报点评：外部需求承压，啤酒升级延续

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 23.744 billion RMB in H1 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%, with beer business revenue at 22.566 billion RMB, down 1.4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.71 billion RMB, an increase of 1.2%. The interim dividend declared is 0.373 RMB per share, a 30% increase compared to the same period last year [4]. - External demand is under pressure, leading to a decline in beer volume but an increase in price, with structural upgrades showing resilience. Beer sales volume in H1 2024 was 6.348 million kiloliters, down 3.4% year-on-year. The average price of beer is estimated at 3,554.8 RMB per kiloliter, up 2.0% year-on-year. The sales of premium and above beer products grew over 10%, with certain brands seeing growth rates exceeding 20% [4][5]. - The company’s gross margin improved, with a gross margin of 46.9% in H1 2024, up 0.9 percentage points year-on-year. The beer business gross margin was 45.8%, driven by increased prices and reduced packaging costs [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company reported a revenue of 23.744 billion RMB, with beer revenue at 22.566 billion RMB and a net profit of 4.71 billion RMB. The beer sales volume decreased by 3.4% year-on-year, while the average price increased by 2.0% [4][6]. - The company expects revenues for 2024-2026 to be 39.78 billion, 40.89 billion, and 42.00 billion RMB, respectively, with net profits of 5.33 billion, 5.93 billion, and 6.43 billion RMB [5][6]. Profitability and Cost Management - The company’s operating expense ratio increased by 0.6 percentage points to 24.2% in H1 2024. The EBITDA margin improved to 27.0%, with the beer business achieving an EBITDA of 6.365 billion RMB, up 2.6% year-on-year [5][6]. - The gross margin for the beer business improved to 45.8%, attributed to price increases and lower packaging costs [4][5]. Valuation and Investment Recommendations - The company is valued using a segmented valuation method, with the beer business assigned a PE ratio of 16-20 times and the liquor business a PE ratio of 10-15 times. The estimated fair value range for the stock is 25.71-32.38 RMB per share, or 27.94-35.20 HKD per share [5][11].