四川双马：新产品超募将继续扩大管理规模，自营投资或将承压

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 12.47 CNY [2][4]. Core Insights - The company is accelerating its transformation towards financial services, with significant growth in private equity management revenue, which increased by 70.5% year-on-year in 2023, reaching 466 million CNY [1]. - The company has successfully expanded its management scale through new product fundraising, with total commitments reaching 10.5 billion CNY, exceeding the initial target of 7.5 billion CNY [1]. - The company's investment income is expected to decline significantly in 2024 due to market volatility, with a projected net profit of approximately 1 billion CNY, which is substantially lower than the previous year's figures [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported investment income of 360 million CNY from its investment portfolios, down 45.5% from 660 million CNY in 2022 [1]. - The total revenue from private equity management in 2023 was 466 million CNY, accounting for 38.2% of total revenue, a significant increase from 22.4% in 2022 [1]. - The company's net profit for 2023 was 985 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.4% [3]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2024 and 2025 have been revised down to 0.63 CNY and 0.80 CNY, respectively, with a new estimate for 2026 at 0.97 CNY [2]. - The projected net profit for 2024 is 480 million CNY, a decrease of 51.3% compared to 2023 [3]. Valuation - The report employs a segmented valuation approach, assigning a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 11.0x for the building materials segment, resulting in a target value of 611 million CNY [9]. - For the private equity management segment, a PE ratio of 21.0x is applied, leading to a target value of 8.912 billion CNY [9]. - The combined target value for the company is estimated at 9.523 billion CNY, corresponding to the target price of 12.47 CNY [12].