皖能电力：业绩贴预告上限，期待装机投产增厚利润

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 10.04 CNY per share based on a 1.50x PB valuation for 2024 [4]. Core Views - The company achieved a net profit of 1.07 billion CNY in the first half of 2024, close to the upper limit of its previous profit forecast, with a year-on-year increase of 83.1% [2][10]. - Revenue for the first half of 2024 reached 14 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.4%, driven by improved operational performance and new power generation capacity coming online [2][10]. - The company is expected to benefit from stable profitability in thermal power generation and increased earnings potential from new installed capacity [2][22]. Summary by Sections 1. Performance Overview - In the first half of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 14 billion CNY, up 14.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.07 billion CNY, up 83.1% year-on-year [2][10]. - The operating cash flow significantly improved, reaching 2.576 billion CNY, a 319% increase year-on-year, attributed to enhanced operational efficiency and revenue from newly commissioned power plants [2][17]. 2. Revenue and Profitability - The company's electricity revenue grew by 28% year-on-year, with a gross margin recovery to 13.7% [2][20]. - The gross profit from electricity operations was 1.528 billion CNY, reflecting a significant increase in profitability due to lower coal costs [20][26]. 3. Installed Capacity and Future Prospects - As of the first half of 2024, the company had 12.28 GW of installed capacity, with additional coal-fired power plants expected to come online by the end of 2024, potentially increasing equity capacity by 2.0 GW [2][22]. - The company aims to expand its renewable energy portfolio, targeting 4 GW of new energy capacity by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan [2][29]. 4. Investment and Financial Metrics - The company forecasts net profits of 2.116 billion CNY, 2.432 billion CNY, and 2.750 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding PB ratios of 1.32, 1.20, and 1.09 [2][3]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve to 14.0% by 2024, reflecting the company's enhanced profitability and operational efficiency [3][20].