华金宏观·双循环周报（第72期）：联储纪要放鸽导致美元闪崩，前瞻还是滞后？

Group 1: Federal Reserve Insights - The July FOMC meeting minutes indicate the Fed's concern over a rapidly weakening U.S. labor market, leading to a more dovish stance on monetary policy[1] - Some Fed members suggested initiating interest rate cuts during the meeting, reflecting a shift towards a more dovish signal compared to previous statements[1] - The U.S. labor statistics office significantly revised down the total new jobs data for the twelve months ending March 2024, reinforcing the Fed's cautious outlook on the labor market[1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. dollar index fell sharply, dropping below 101, marking its lowest level of the year following the dovish Fed signals[1] - Strong consumer demand in the U.S. is expected to potentially drive a rebound in employment, despite recent labor market weaknesses[1] - Retail sales in July showed a month-on-month increase of 1.0%, with durable goods contributing significantly to this growth, indicating robust consumer demand[1] Group 3: Japan's Economic Situation - Japan's core CPI fell to 1.9% in July, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, marking the first drop below 2% since October 2022[2] - The Bank of Japan's recent decision to implement a simultaneous tightening strategy of interest rate hikes and balance sheet reduction may further suppress domestic consumption[2] - The external environment remains complex for China's monetary policy due to Japan's economic conditions and potential impacts on the U.S. dollar index[2]