钢铁行业周报：淡旺季逐步切换，需求边际回升

Industry Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel industry, with a positive outlook on demand recovery and supply-side adjustments [1][3] Core Views - Demand is expected to marginally recover as the industry transitions from off-peak to peak seasons [1] - Steel enterprises are still undergoing production cuts and maintenance due to deep losses, which may gradually alleviate market pressure [3] - The report highlights that the steel industry is in a bottoming phase, with expectations of demand improvement and supply-side restructuring [5] Steel Market Overview - Steel prices have risen, with rebar spot prices increasing by 70 CNY/ton to 3,190 CNY/ton, and hot-rolled coil prices rising by 30 CNY/ton to 3,160 CNY/ton [7] - Total steel inventory has declined for four consecutive weeks, with a reduction of 581,300 tons last week [5] - Apparent consumption of steel increased by 4.55% week-on-week, reaching 8.37 million tons, while production rose slightly by 9,600 tons to 7.79 million tons [5][10] Raw Materials - Iron ore spot prices rose by 6 CNY/ton to 720 CNY/ton, while coking coal prices fell by 120 CNY/ton to 1,560 CNY/ton [20] - Iron ore port inventory decreased by 0.02% to 150.33 million tons, remaining at a high level [23] - Coke inventory at steel mills increased by 32,100 tons, with average usable days rising to 10.81 days [26] Special Steel and New Materials - Stainless steel prices fell, with 304 stainless steel (6mm coil) dropping by 40 CNY/ton to 13,430 CNY/ton [44] - Industrial-grade lithium carbonate prices decreased by 1,000 CNY/ton to 71,500 CNY/ton, while battery-grade lithium carbonate prices fell by 500 CNY/ton to 75,000 CNY/ton [46] - Praseodymium-neodymium oxide prices rose by 10,000 CNY/ton to 395,000 CNY/ton, and sintered neodymium-iron-boron prices increased by 3 CNY/kg to 134 CNY/kg [48] Macroeconomic Indicators - Crude steel production in July decreased by 9% year-on-year, with daily output falling by 37,850 tons/day to 267,550 tons/day [49] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by 3.6% year-on-year in July, down 0.3 percentage points from June [55] - Real estate development investment fell by 10.2% year-on-year in July, while infrastructure investment grew by 4.9% [56] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends companies with upgraded product structures, such as Hunan Valin Steel, Baoshan Iron & Steel, and Xinyu Iron & Steel [5] - It also highlights special steel and new material companies, including CITIC Special Steel, Yongjin Technology, and Tunan Advanced Materials [5] - Upstream resource companies like Hebei Iron & Steel Resources, Ordos, and Dazhong Mining are favored for their long-term competitive advantages [5]