CHINA COAL ENERGY(SH:601898) Xinda Securities·2024-08-24 08:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Coal Energy Co., Ltd. (601898.SH) is "Buy," maintaining the previous rating of "Buy" [1]. Core Views - The report highlights that the company's coal sales structure advantage mitigates the impact of coal price fluctuations on performance. The company achieved a stable increase in coal production and sales, with self-produced coal sales reaching 66.19 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.1% [1][2]. - The report anticipates that the demand for coal in the second half of the year will provide strong support for long-term contract prices, and the market prices are not expected to decline significantly. The company's high proportion of long-term contracts and internal growth momentum are expected to bring stable upward performance expectations [2]. Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2023, the company reported total operating revenue of 92.984 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.97%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 9.788 billion yuan, down 17.30% [1]. - The company's operating cash flow was 14.890 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.59% year-on-year, with basic earnings per share of 0.74 yuan, down 16.85% [1]. - The asset-liability ratio stood at 47.97%, a decrease of 1.91 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - For the second quarter of 2024, the company reported a single-quarter operating revenue of 47.589 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.20%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.84% [1]. Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a special dividend and a mid-year dividend for 2024, proposing a cash dividend of 0.113 yuan per share, with a total distribution of 7.36 billion yuan for the 2023 fiscal year, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 37.7% [2]. - The mid-year profit distribution plan for 2024 suggests a cash dividend of 0.221 yuan per share, corresponding to a dividend yield of approximately 1.7% based on the stock price as of August 23, 2024 [2]. Earnings Forecast - The report projects that the company will achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 19.847 billion yuan, 20.697 billion yuan, and 21.455 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with earnings per share of 1.50 yuan, 1.56 yuan, and 1.62 yuan [2].