CHANGHAI(300196) 天风证券·2024-08-24 10:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 11.64 yuan, based on a 16x target PE for 2024 [4][5] Core Views - The company's Q2 profitability is expected to improve sequentially, driven by a recovery in glass fiber prices and increased production efficiency [2] - The company's long-term growth potential is supported by its ongoing capacity expansion, with a 15,000-ton production line expected to start operations in Q3 2024 [2] - Despite a year-on-year decline in H1 2024 net profit, the company's performance is expected to gradually recover in the second half of the year [2][4] Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company reported revenue of 1.224 billion yuan, down 6.40% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 122 million yuan, down 42.01% year-on-year [1] - Q2 2024 revenue was 643 million yuan, down 8.74% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 71 million yuan, down 44.82% year-on-year [1] - The company's gross margin in H1 2024 was 22.80%, down 4.49 percentage points year-on-year, with Q2 gross margin improving to 23.93% sequentially [3] Business Segments - In H1 2024, the glass fiber and products segment generated revenue of 910 million yuan, down 4.26% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 24.99%, down 4.78 percentage points [2] - The chemical products segment reported revenue of 290 million yuan, down 6.97% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 16.40%, down 3.68 percentage points [2] - The average price of 2400tex direct roving in Q2 2024 was 3,577 yuan/ton, up 17.4% sequentially, indicating a recovery in glass fiber prices [2] Capacity Expansion - The company currently operates 3 kiln production lines with an annual capacity of 240,000 tons [2] - A new 150,000-ton production line is expected to start operations in Q3 2024, with another line under construction [2] - The company's total planned capacity expansion is 600,000 tons, with the first phase of 150,000 tons nearing completion [2] Financial Forecasts - The report revises the company's net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to 300 million, 370 million, and 460 million yuan, respectively, down from previous estimates of 370 million, 450 million, and 520 million yuan [4] - The company's revenue is expected to grow by 2.03% in 2024, 21.52% in 2025, and 20.04% in 2026 [6] - EPS is forecasted to be 0.73 yuan in 2024, 0.91 yuan in 2025, and 1.12 yuan in 2026 [6]