AMEC(688012) 华创证券·2024-08-24 11:07Investment Rating - Strong Buy (Maintained) with a target price of 189.2 RMB, compared to the current price of 131.01 RMB [1] Core Views - The company's revenue in H1 2024 reached 3.448 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 36.46%, with a gross margin of 41.32%, down 4.57 percentage points year-on-year [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company in H1 2024 was 517 million RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 48.48%, while non-GAAP net profit was 483 million RMB, down 6.88% year-on-year [1] - In Q2 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.843 billion RMB, up 41.37% year-on-year and 14.81% quarter-on-quarter, with a gross margin of 38.17%, down 7.73 percentage points year-on-year and 6.77 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] - The company's etching equipment revenue in H1 2024 was 2.698 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 56.68%, driven by the acceleration of semiconductor equipment localization [2] - New orders in H1 2024 reached 4.7 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of approximately 40.3%, with expected cumulative new orders for 2024 projected to be between 11-13 billion RMB [2] - The company's ICP and CCP equipment are rapidly advancing, with 12-inch high-end etching equipment already in mass production for nodes ranging from 65nm to 5nm and beyond [2] - R&D investment in H1 2024 increased by 110.84% year-on-year to 970 million RMB, accounting for 28.15% of revenue, supporting the company's platform-based development [2] Financial Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are 8.395 billion RMB, 11.823 billion RMB, and 15.043 billion RMB, respectively [2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1.8 billion RMB, 2.737 billion RMB, and 3.608 billion RMB for 2024-2026, respectively [2] - The company's gross margin is projected to remain stable at around 46.3%-46.9% from 2024 to 2026 [7] - ROE is expected to increase from 9.3% in 2024 to 14.5% in 2026, reflecting improved profitability [7] Industry and Market Context - The semiconductor equipment industry is benefiting from accelerated localization due to changes in international trade dynamics, with the company well-positioned to capitalize on this trend [2] - The company's etching equipment is gaining market share in both logic and 3D NAND production lines, with successful validation of new ICP and CCP equipment for high-aspect-ratio etching [2] - The company's platform-based strategy and high R&D investment are expected to drive long-term growth, particularly in advanced logic and memory production lines [2]