LI AUTO(02015) 国投证券·2024-08-26 08:03Investment Rating and Target Price - The report initiates coverage with a Buy-A rating for Li Auto (02015 HK) and sets a 6-month target price of 109 59 RMB [4][5] - The current stock price is 75 76 RMB (as of 2024-08-23), with a total market capitalization of 160 77 billion RMB and a free float market cap of 133 81 billion RMB [5] Core Competencies and Growth Strategy - Li Auto's success is attributed to its three core capabilities: exceptional product definition, strong marketing, and excellent organizational management [2] - The company has demonstrated rapid growth from 0 to 10, transitioning from a single product (Li ONE) to a diversified product matrix (L series) [1][11] - Li Auto's product iteration speed is faster than competitors, making it difficult for rivals to replicate its success [2] Product and Market Performance - The L series (L7 L8 L9) has achieved significant success, with steady monthly sales expected to exceed 50,000 units [3] - Li Auto's OTA 6 0 upgrade has significantly enhanced the intelligent driving experience, boosting the proportion of MAX version orders [3] - The company is expanding its pure electric vehicle (EV) lineup, with four new EV SUV models expected to launch between 2024 and 2025 [3] Financial Projections - The report forecasts Li Auto's net profit for 2024-2026 to be 7 5 billion RMB, 15 5 billion RMB, and 26 8 billion RMB, respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of -25%, 63%, and 80% [4] - The company's PE ratio for 2024-2026 is projected at 19x, 9x, and 5x, indicating strong growth potential [4] Industry and Market Trends - The mid-to-high-end passenger vehicle market is expected to grow, with 20-30 million RMB price segment sales projected to reach 7 61 million units in 2024, 8 21 million units in 2025, and 8 82 million units in 2026 [47] - Domestic brands are gaining market share in the 30-40 million RMB price segment, with Li Auto and AITO leading the charge [49] Technological Advancements - Li Auto is accelerating its intelligent driving capabilities, with the launch of its OTA 6 0 upgrade and the introduction of its end-to-end + VLM system architecture [2] - The company has built over 700 supercharging stations as of July 2024, laying a solid foundation for its upcoming pure electric products [3] Organizational and Strategic Evolution - Li Auto has transitioned from a vertical organizational structure to a matrix structure, enhancing operational efficiency and enabling rapid product launches [23][24] - The company's 2025 strategy focuses on expanding its target customer base, developing new vehicle platforms, and increasing its product lineup to achieve a sales target of 1 6 million units by 2025 [25]