美联储系列八：Time has come，美联储给经济“加油”

Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Insights - The Federal Reserve's recent announcement indicates that the timing for policy adjustments has arrived, with interest rate cuts dependent on future data and risk assessments[1] - The Fed interprets weak non-farm employment data as a sign of increased labor market participation rather than layoffs, suggesting a "preventive" rate cut could facilitate a "soft landing" for the economy[1] - The shift in policy direction opens up space for asset pricing adjustments, with the certainty of direction but uncertainty in timing[1] Group 2: Market Reactions and Strategies - Short-term optimism is noted, with expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in September reaching a probability of 125%[11] - The anticipated rate cuts are expected to steepen the yield curve in both U.S. and Chinese bond markets, indicating increased monetary easing potential[2] - The report maintains a positive macro strategy for August, with a focus on commodities and industrial markets benefiting from the Fed's dovish stance[2] Group 3: Risks and Economic Outlook - There is a risk of short-term economic data volatility and liquidity exceeding expectations, which could impact market stability[3] - The potential for rising inflation due to supply-side pressures and cost pass-throughs remains a concern, particularly with housing prices stabilizing and rental costs potentially increasing[14] - The report highlights that while the Fed's actions may boost U.S. asset prices, non-U.S. currencies may face tightening liquidity conditions due to rising inflation pressures in other regions[17]